The contest between Suduva Marijampole and FK Zalgiris Vilnius is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39 % for a Suduva victory, 28 % for a draw and 33 % for a Zalgiris win. The average goal output is 2.7, and the most likely total is two goals, a 25 % chance. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3 % probability.
Suduva, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Zalgiris, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Suduva’s recent form is a four-game winning streak, while Zalgiris comes off a win after a series of defeats.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Under 5.5 (94.0 %), Under 4.5 (85.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (85.3 %) and Home +2 handicap (84.7 %).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suduva Marijampole win
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.03
1.57
1.21
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
1.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
1.57
0.96
1.64
1.09
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.71
1.07
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.87
1.86
1.43
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.80
1.57
0.71
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.5%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.5%
13%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.9%
8.8%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.2%
2.6%
1.1%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Suduva Marijampole is 0.67 points better than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Suduva Marijampole is 0.17 goals better than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Suduva Marijampole is 1.00 goals better than FK Zalgiris Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Suduva Marijampole or Draw
68.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
32%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
71.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
32%
covers Suduva Marijampole + FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
60.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
32%
covers Draw + FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5
Over
76.2%
Under
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Suduva Marijampole, so a minus line means Suduva Marijampole give that many goals of a start and FK Zalgiris Vilnius receive them. At -1, Suduva Marijampole must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Suduva Marijampole win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole -2
7.4%
Draw -2
12.2%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +2
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole -1
19.7%
Draw -1
20.3%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +1
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole +1
68.1%
Draw +1
17.7%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.4%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.36
0.64
0.44
0.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.35
0.36
0.55
0.58
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.86
0.57
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.2%
Under 0.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
Under 1.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.2%
Under 2.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.21
0.57
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.61
1.27
0.55
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.4%
Under 1.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.5%
Under 2.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Suduva Marijampole's squad is €1m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€6m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole's midfield is €1m less valuable than FK Zalgiris Vilnius's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Suduva Marijampole and FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai