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Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
28%
30%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win✓ Hit
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L03L00D33D10W01L01L20W00DH·ŠIA25/10A·BAN03/11H·FK 12/11H·ŠIA01/03A·FK 10/03H·PAN13/03A·DŽI16/03H·DAI31/03A·TRA07/04A·BAN10/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.270.731.001.001.53
vs Stronger (6)1.332.831.333.001.332.67
vs Similar (24)0.750.880.580.500.921.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L20W24L23L21W22D31W42W00D01LA·KAU29/10H·FK 04/11A·KAU12/11H·TRA03/03A·KAU09/03H·ŠIA13/03A·FK 17/03H·PAN30/03A·DŽI06/04H·DAI09/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.301.271.131.531.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.651.501.701.001.602.00
vs Weaker (10)0.900.900.401.401.400.40
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1 ✓
11.4%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
8.4%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
5.0%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
01234
011%11%8.4%3.7%1.2%
18.6%14%8.5%3.7%1.2%
25.0%6.6%4.4%1.9%0.6%
31.7%2.2%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Suduva Marijampole is 0.76 points worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Suduva Marijampole is 0.77 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Suduva Marijampole is 0.03 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D12L00D01L01L00D00DH·ŠIA25/10A·BAN03/11H·FK 12/11H·ŠIA01/03A·FK 10/03H·PAN13/03A·DŽI16/03H·DAI31/03A·TRA07/04A·BAN10/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.470.130.330.470.60
vs Stronger (6)0.500.830.671.000.330.67
vs Similar (24)0.250.380.000.170.500.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L11D01L00D01L21W00D00DA·KAU29/10H·FK 04/11A·KAU12/11H·TRA03/03A·KAU09/03H·ŠIA13/03A·FK 17/03H·PAN30/03A·DŽI06/04H·DAI09/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.500.530.330.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.500.600.800.200.201.00
vs Weaker (10)0.200.300.000.600.400.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L02L00D21W10W00D00D20W00DH·ŠIA25/10A·BAN03/11H·FK 12/11H·ŠIA01/03A·FK 10/03H·PAN13/03A·DŽI16/03H·DAI31/03A·TRA07/04A·BAN10/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.600.670.530.93
vs Stronger (6)0.832.000.672.001.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.500.500.580.330.420.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W22D12L20W22D30W21W00D01LA·KAU29/10H·FK 04/11A·KAU12/11H·TRA03/03A·KAU09/03H·ŠIA13/03A·FK 17/03H·PAN30/03A·DŽI06/04H·DAI09/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.800.730.801.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.150.900.900.801.401.00
vs Weaker (10)0.700.600.400.801.000.40
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SM wins
1
Draws
5
HL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-0
02/07/23HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
28/04/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM6-0
11/03/23HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-0
13/11/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-0
06/09/22HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
21/06/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-2
10/04/22HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/24ABanga Vs SM0-0
07/04/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs SM0-2
31/03/24HSM Vs Dainava0-1
16/03/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM1-0
13/03/24HSM Vs Panevėžys1-0
10/03/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM3-3
01/03/24HSM Vs Šiauliai0-0
12/11/23HSM Vs FK Trakai0-3
03/11/23ABanga Vs SM1-0
25/10/23HSM Vs Šiauliai2-0

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/24HHL Vs Dainava0-1
06/04/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs HL0-0
30/03/24HHL Vs Panevėžys4-2
17/03/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL1-3
13/03/24HHL Vs Šiauliai2-2
09/03/24AKauno Žalgiris Vs HL1-2
03/03/24HHL Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-3
12/11/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs HL4-2
04/11/23HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-0
29/10/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs HL4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.02
HomeWLDWL1.24
AwayLDLWD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals2.322.002.64
Over 1.5 %68%60%76%
Over 2.5 %34%20%48%
Over 3.5 %16%8%24%
Scored0.800.800.80
Conceded1.521.201.84
BTTS28%20%36%
Clean Sheet30%44%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.52
HomeWLDWL1.68
AwayLLWWD1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals2.963.002.92
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.641.841.44
Conceded1.321.161.48
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet34%44%24%
Corners8.506.0011.00
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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