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Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen Result & Analysis

Date: 20/07/2026
Time: 15:45
Final 5-1
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
39%
32%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Suduva Marijampole a 39% win probability against Hegelmann Litauen in the Lithuania: A Lyga on 2026-07-20, with 32% for the draw and 30% for Hegelmann Litauen. The model estimates around 2.2 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (82%).

Results analysis

Suduva Marijampole finished 5-1 against Hegelmann Litauen (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 39% home win, 32% draw and 30% away win. Missed: Under 3.5 (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D13L00D00D21W10W22D12L00DA·BAN21/09A·KAU24/09H·FK 29/09A·FK 04/10A·DŽI18/10H·DAI23/10H·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11H·TRA06/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.931.501.001.210.86
vs Stronger (11)1.270.911.430.861.001.00
vs Similar (13)1.310.851.430.861.170.83
vs Weaker (6)1.671.172.002.001.500.75
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W11D00D02L41W20W13L21W11DA·ŠIA14/09A·PAN21/09H·KAU01/10H·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.101.711.071.251.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.001.501.401.600.711.43
vs Weaker (18)1.780.831.890.781.670.89
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.1%
Under 2.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.3%
1-0
11.7%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.7%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
01234
012%9.8%5.7%1.9%0.5%
112%15%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.8%7.9%4.0%1.4%0.4%
33.1%3.2%1.6%0.5%0.1%
40.9%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.25
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.14
Panevėžys
1.00
Hegelmann Litauen
0.67
Šiauliai
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 1.83 points better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.75
Suduva Marijampole
2.50
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Banga
1.80
Džiugas Telšiai
1.20
Hegelmann Litauen
1.17
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.86
Šiauliai
0.83
Panevėžys
0.80
Suduva Marijampole is 1.33 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.25
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
Panevėžys
1.20
Džiugas Telšiai
1.40
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.43
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Banga
1.60
Hegelmann Litauen
2.17
Šiauliai
2.67
Suduva Marijampole is 1.92 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (0.25 vs 2.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L00D00D00D00D01L00D00DA·BAN21/09A·KAU24/09H·FK 29/09A·FK 04/10A·DŽI18/10H·DAI23/10H·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11H·TRA06/07
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.400.620.560.500.21
vs Stronger (11)0.640.450.860.570.250.25
vs Similar (13)0.620.380.570.430.670.33
vs Weaker (6)0.330.330.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W00D00D20W10W12L00D00DA·ŠIA14/09A·PAN21/09H·KAU01/10H·BAN05/10A·FK 18/10H·DŽI23/10A·DAI27/10A·FK 02/11H·SUD08/11A·PAN04/07
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.370.790.360.500.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.670.421.200.600.290.29
vs Weaker (18)0.610.330.560.220.670.44
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SM wins
0
Draws
5
HL wins

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Hegelmann Litauen · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-1
30/08/25HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
30/06/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM0-2
27/04/25HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-0
02/11/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-1
10/08/24HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1
15/06/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM3-2
13/04/24HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/07/26HSM Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-0
08/11/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-1
02/11/25HSM Vs Šiauliai2-2
27/10/25HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0
23/10/25HSM Vs Dainava2-1
18/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-0
04/10/25AFK Trakai Vs SM0-0
29/09/25HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-3
24/09/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM1-1
21/09/25ABanga Vs SM0-1

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26APanevėžys Vs HL1-1
08/11/25HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole2-1
02/11/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL3-1
27/10/25ADainava Vs HL0-2
23/10/25HHL Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-1
18/10/25AFK Trakai Vs HL2-0
05/10/25HHL Vs Banga0-0
01/10/25HHL Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-1
21/09/25APanevėžys Vs HL0-1
14/09/25AŠiauliai Vs HL0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.58
HomeLWWDD1.81
AwayWDDDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%33%
AVG goals2.262.082.46
Over 1.5 %64%58%71%
Over 2.5 %46%38%54%
Over 3.5 %20%23%17%
Scored1.281.311.25
Conceded0.980.771.21
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.68
HomeDDDWW2.04
AwayWLWLD1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals2.762.882.62
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %54%62%46%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored1.521.851.17
Conceded1.241.041.46
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet30%27%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4242.50.2
-
2Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole410
75%
2.5
101+9
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius49
75%
2.2
116+5
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2232.81.5
-
4BangaBanga59
60%
1.8
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.81.6
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius78
29%
1.1
610-4
2.3
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
6Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7PanevėžysPanevėžys55
20%
1.0
46-2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.81.2
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen64
17%
0.7
713-6
3.3
100%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.22.2
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai63
17%
0.5
516-11
3.5
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.7
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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