Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

The contest between Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 38% for Suduva, 29% for a draw and 33% for Kauno. The average goal tally is 2.5, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% chance. Suduva, playing at home against a stronger opponent, scores only 0.33 goals per game while conceding 2.33. Kauno, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 75.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.6%, and Over 1.5 goals at 72.8%. Suduva’s recent five-game winning streak, ending with a 2-1 win over Šiauliai, contrasts with Kauno’s last draw, 0-0 against Banga. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition.

The win for Kauno Žalgiris was a shock, overturning the pre-match favourite Suduva Marijampole, who had been on a five-game winning run at home. The final score was 0-2, giving the away side the victory. The model had chosen a home win with a 38% probability, but that call was wrong. Its other selections performed well: the Under 3.5 goal pick hit with a 75.5% probability, and the Over 1.5 goal pick also hit, backed by a 72.8% chance. The match confirmed the model’s predictions on total goals while missing on the outcome.