Defensive solidity will shape this tight, low-scoring outing. The model predicts a home win, with a 36% chance for Suduva Marijampole, a 32% chance for a draw, and a 32% chance for Kauno Žalgiris. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most likely total being two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance.
Suduva, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. Kauno, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and only 0.62 conceded. The model’s selection for the match is Under 3.5, carrying an 82.9% probability.
The final score of 2-6, an away win, shows how unpredictable the game can be. The recent form narrative is that Suduva is on a five-game winning streak, while Kauno comes off a draw. The model’s favourite result remains a home win.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Suduva Marijampole, riding a five-game winning streak, fell 2-6 to Kauno Žalgiris. The model had tipped a home win with a 36% chance, but the prediction was wrong. Its only other suggestion, Under 3.5 goals, came in at 82.9% and missed as the match saw six goals. The final score of 2-6 confirmed an away victory, overturning the pre-match favourite. The model’s call was incorrect, and the single other selection failed to hit. The game delivered the expected total of 2 goals, yet the actual total far exceeded that, with Kauno Žalgiris dominating both attack and defence.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.63
1.00
1.07
0.56
2.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.71
1.67
2.33
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
1.30
0.82
0.73
0.67
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.50
1.14
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.92
1.20
1.80
1.14
2.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
0.62
1.75
0.62
1.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.7%
Under 1.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.7%
No
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.0%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
10.7%
2-1
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.3%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.2%
7.5%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.7%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.67 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.92 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Suduva Marijampole is 0.56 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.36
0.50
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.78
0.27
0.36
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.67
0.40
1.00
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.31
0.62
0.38
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.64
0.57
0.19
1.19
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.14
1.00
1.33
0.25
2.75
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.52
0.55
0.36
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.25
0.80
0.80
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.31
1.12
0.25
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole's attack is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole's defence is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Dainava
FK Trakai
Be1 NFA