Suduva Marijampole’s defensive record at home is the story here, conceding an average of 1.67 goals against stronger opposition, while Kauno Žalgiris, on the road, has been a stingy unit, allowing only 0.25 goals to weaker teams. The model favours a home win, with a 34% chance, a 33% draw and a 33% away win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.9% chance. Suduva’s recent five-game winning streak (2-1 over Šiauliai) fuels optimism, whereas Žalgiris is coming off a 0-0 draw with Banga. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Under 5.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 4.5 (94.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.3%) and Home under 2.5 goals (91.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suduva Marijampole win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.03
1.57
1.21
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
1.33
1.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
1.57
0.96
1.64
1.09
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.87
2.07
0.80
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.79
2.22
0.78
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.42
2.25
0.75
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.6%
Under 1.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.6%
Under 3.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.9%
No
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.0%
1-0
11.7%
0-1
11.7%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.6%
2
6.8%
7.0%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.3%
2.4%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Suduva Marijampole is 0.47 points better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Suduva Marijampole is 0.33 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Suduva Marijampole is 0.13 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 0.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Suduva Marijampole or Draw
66.5%
Avg Implied -
34%
33%
34%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole or Kauno Žalgiris
67.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
33%
34%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
66.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
33%
34%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Suduva Marijampole, so a minus line means Suduva Marijampole give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris receive them. At -1, Suduva Marijampole must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Suduva Marijampole win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole -2
4.0%
Draw -2
9.5%
Kauno Žalgiris +2
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole -1
13.5%
Draw -1
20.1%
Kauno Žalgiris +1
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole +1
66.5%
Draw +1
20.1%
Kauno Žalgiris -1
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Suduva Marijampole)
Suduva Marijampole +2
86.6%
Draw +2
9.5%
Kauno Žalgiris -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.36
0.64
0.44
0.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.35
0.36
0.55
0.58
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
1.21
0.57
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.61
1.27
0.55
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Suduva Marijampole's squad is €4m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole's attack is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Suduva Marijampole's defence is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai