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Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2022
Time: 14:55
Final 4-1
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
24%
29%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✗ Miss
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W21W22D22D05L40W21W01L01L22DA·KAU14/05H·PAN21/05A·DŽI18/06A·HEG21/06H·FK 26/06A·JON02/07H·ŠIA09/07H·VIB21/07A·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.321.051.271.091.361.00
vs Stronger (7)0.861.430.332.331.250.75
vs Similar (15)1.530.871.620.621.431.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D10W12L02L50W12L21W00D02L21WH·HEG03/05H·DŽI15/05A·SUD21/05H·FK 19/06A·JON22/06H·ŠIA25/06A·BAN02/07H·MIL07/07A·MIL14/07H·KAU23/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.480.671.550.641.400.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.180.821.330.781.000.88
vs Weaker (4)2.750.002.500.003.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
11.5%
0-0
9.9%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
6.1%
0-3
4.5%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
09.9%11%9.3%4.5%1.6%
17.3%14%9.1%4.4%1.6%
24.2%6.1%4.5%2.2%0.8%
31.4%2.0%1.5%0.7%0.3%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
Suduva Marijampole is 0.19 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
Suduva Marijampole is 0.06 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
Suduva Marijampole is 0.25 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W11D00D02L00D10W00D01L21WA·KAU14/05H·PAN21/05A·DŽI18/06A·HEG21/06H·FK 26/06A·JON02/07H·ŠIA09/07H·VIB21/07A·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.360.640.360.640.36
vs Stronger (7)0.860.570.330.671.250.50
vs Similar (15)0.530.270.750.250.290.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %68% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D12L02L30W11D11D00D01L10WH·HEG03/05H·DŽI15/05A·SUD21/05H·FK 19/06A·JON22/06H·ŠIA25/06A·BAN02/07H·MIL07/07A·MIL14/07H·KAU23/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.380.550.360.800.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.590.470.560.440.620.50
vs Weaker (4)1.000.000.500.001.500.00
Clean sheet %71% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D22D03L40W11D01L00D01LA·KAU14/05H·PAN21/05A·DŽI18/06A·HEG21/06H·FK 26/06A·JON02/07H·ŠIA09/07H·VIB21/07A·VIB28/07A·KAU02/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.680.640.730.730.64
vs Stronger (7)0.000.860.001.670.000.25
vs Similar (15)1.000.600.880.381.140.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D00D20W01L10W00D01L11DH·HEG03/05H·DŽI15/05A·SUD21/05H·FK 19/06A·JON22/06H·ŠIA25/06A·BAN02/07H·MIL07/07A·MIL14/07H·KAU23/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.810.291.000.270.600.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.590.350.780.330.380.38
vs Weaker (4)1.750.002.000.001.500.00
Clean sheet %76% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards80.8%--------
Under 3.577.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards73.9%--------
Over 8.5 corners72.0%--------
Over 1.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SM wins
0
Draws
1
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/22HSM Vs Panevėžys2-1
02/04/22APanevėžys Vs SM2-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM2-2
28/07/22AViborg Vs SM1-0
21/07/22HSM Vs Viborg0-1
09/07/22HSM Vs Šiauliai2-1
02/07/22AJonava Vs SM0-4
26/06/22HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-5
21/06/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-2
18/06/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM2-2
21/05/22HSM Vs Panevėžys2-1
14/05/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM0-3

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/22HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-1
14/07/22AMilsami Orhei Vs PAN2-0
07/07/22HPAN Vs Milsami Orhei0-0
02/07/22ABanga Vs PAN1-2
25/06/22HPAN Vs Šiauliai1-2
22/06/22AJonava Vs PAN0-5
19/06/22HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2
21/05/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs PAN2-1
15/05/22HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
03/05/22HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD1.45
HomeDWLWL1.64
AwayDDWLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%45%27%
AVG goals2.362.362.36
Over 1.5 %73%82%64%
Over 2.5 %45%36%55%
Over 3.5 %23%9%36%
Scored1.321.271.36
Conceded1.051.091.00
BTTS41%45%36%
Clean Sheet36%27%45%
Corners11.0011.0011.00
Cards4.004.00-
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.90
HomeWLLDW2.09
AwayLLWWL1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%64%50%
AVG goals2.142.182.10
Over 1.5 %67%73%60%
Over 2.5 %48%45%50%
Over 3.5 %10%9%10%
Scored1.481.551.40
Conceded0.670.640.70
BTTS33%36%30%
Clean Sheet57%55%60%
Corners9.504.0015.00
Cards3.00-3.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3684
72%
2.3
8527+58
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.40.8
-
2Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3663
50%
1.8
5537+18
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.0
-
3PanevėžysPanevėžys3662
50%
1.7
5031+19
2.2
67%
47%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.9
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3661
44%
1.7
6232+30
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.70.9
-
5FK TrakaiFK Trakai3659
47%
1.6
5341+12
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3655
42%
1.5
4840+8
2.4
81%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.1
-
8BangaBanga3630
17%
0.8
3354-21
2.4
75%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.5
-
9Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3627
14%
0.8
3467-33
2.8
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.9
-
10JonavaJonava363
0%
0.1
12103-91
3.2
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.9
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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