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Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 26/06/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-3
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
28%
35%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D01L10W11D01L10W23L22D04LA·PAN02/05A·MIN07/05H·DŽI11/05A·DAI17/05A·ŠIA21/05H·TRA24/05H·BAN01/06A·HEG15/06H·KAU19/06A·FK 23/06
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.170.500.930.941.38
vs Stronger (6)1.172.331.001.671.333.00
vs Similar (23)0.610.870.360.730.831.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W12L02L02L00D20W12L03L20WA·DAI28/04H·SUD02/05A·FK 06/05A·BAN11/05H·HEG18/05H·KAU25/05H·ŠIA01/06A·FK 16/06A·TRA19/06H·DAI22/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.831.000.540.941.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.961.041.100.700.851.31
vs Weaker (7)1.000.140.670.001.250.25
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%18%027%128%216%37%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.0%
Under 1.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.9%
Under 2.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
10.9%
Under 3.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.2%
No
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.9%
0-1
14.9%
1-1
14.6%
1-0
12.2%
0-2
8.0%
1-2
6.5%
2-0
5.5%
2-1
5.4%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
018%15%8.0%2.6%0.6%
112%15%6.5%2.1%0.5%
25.5%5.4%2.7%0.9%0.2%
31.5%1.5%0.7%0.2%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
Suduva Marijampole is 0.03 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
Suduva Marijampole is 0.05 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Suduva Marijampole is 0.03 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D00D11D01L00D21W11D01LA·PAN02/05A·MIN07/05H·DŽI11/05A·DAI17/05A·ŠIA21/05H·TRA24/05H·BAN01/06A·HEG15/06H·KAU19/06A·FK 23/06
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.570.070.430.440.69
vs Stronger (6)0.501.000.330.670.671.33
vs Similar (23)0.220.430.000.360.420.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D00D10W01L02L20WA·DAI28/04H·SUD02/05A·FK 06/05A·BAN11/05H·HEG18/05H·KAU25/05H·ŠIA01/06A·FK 16/06A·TRA19/06H·DAI22/06
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.300.620.080.290.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.430.350.600.100.310.54
vs Weaker (7)0.430.140.670.000.250.25
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W01L10W00D00D10W02L11D03LA·PAN02/05A·MIN07/05H·DŽI11/05A·DAI17/05A·ŠIA21/05H·TRA24/05H·BAN01/06A·HEG15/06H·KAU19/06A·FK 23/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.430.500.500.69
vs Stronger (6)0.671.330.671.000.671.67
vs Similar (23)0.390.430.360.360.420.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D02L02L00D10W11D01L00DA·DAI28/04H·SUD02/05A·FK 06/05A·BAN11/05H·HEG18/05H·KAU25/05H·ŠIA01/06A·FK 16/06A·TRA19/06H·DAI22/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.380.460.650.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.520.700.500.600.540.77
vs Weaker (7)0.570.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.589.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 2.573.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SM wins
1
Draws
5
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/24APanevėžys Vs SM1-0
13/03/24HSM Vs Panevėžys1-0
23/09/23APanevėžys Vs SM2-1
16/09/23HSM Vs Panevėžys0-1
13/05/23APanevėžys Vs SM0-0
15/03/23HSM Vs Panevėžys0-2
02/10/22APanevėžys Vs SM2-0
07/08/22HSM Vs Panevėžys4-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/06/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM4-0
19/06/24HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-2
15/06/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM3-2
01/06/24HSM Vs Banga1-0
24/05/24HSM Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-1
21/05/24AŠiauliai Vs SM1-1
17/05/24ADainava Vs SM0-1
11/05/24HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-1
07/05/24AMinija Vs SM1-1
02/05/24APanevėžys Vs SM1-0

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/24HPAN Vs Dainava2-0
19/06/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs PAN3-0
16/06/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs PAN2-1
01/06/24HPAN Vs Šiauliai2-0
25/05/24HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-0
18/05/24HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-2
11/05/24ABanga Vs PAN2-0
06/05/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs PAN2-1
02/05/24HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
28/04/24ADainava Vs PAN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.96
HomeDLLWD1.13
AwayDWDLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%30%19%
AVG goals2.141.742.48
Over 1.5 %56%43%67%
Over 2.5 %32%17%44%
Over 3.5 %16%9%22%
Scored0.740.650.81
Conceded1.401.091.67
BTTS32%17%44%
Clean Sheet28%39%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.74
HomeWLDWW2.00
AwayDLLLL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%40%
AVG goals1.881.961.80
Over 1.5 %60%68%52%
Over 2.5 %30%28%32%
Over 3.5 %10%16%4%
Scored1.181.440.92
Conceded0.700.520.88
BTTS32%28%36%
Clean Sheet56%64%48%
Corners8.007.009.00
Cards5.758.503.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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