This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.13
1.38
0.85
2.35
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.38
1.60
0.90
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (9)
3.22
0.56
0.67
0.67
4.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
6.7%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10.0%
13%
6.6%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.3%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.4%
4.8%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hegelmann Litauen
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Atmosfera
2.25
Banga
2.20
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Viltis Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.00
FKS Ukmergė
2.00
Nemunas
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Ekranas
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Sendvaris
1.50
Dembava
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Euforija
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
BFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Klaipėdos FM
1.33
Nevėžis
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.99
Cementininkas Akmenė
0.99
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.99
Narjanta Kupiškis
0.99
Ataka Vilnius
0.99
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Fortūna Kaunas
0.00
Panevėžys
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Sveikata
0.00
Suduva Marijampole is 1.00 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VGTU Vilkai
5.50
Ekranas
5.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
4.67
FKS Ukmergė
4.33
Alternatyvus FK
4.00
Dembava
4.00
Tauras
4.00
Kauno Žalgiris
3.75
Klaipėdos FM
3.67
Babrungas
3.67
Sendvaris
3.00
Euforija
3.00
FK Trakai
3.00
Jonava
3.00
Banga
2.60
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Atmosfera
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Šiauliai
2.00
BFA
2.00
Minija
2.00
Vilnius FA
1.83
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.83
Pempininkai Gargždai
1.83
Narjanta Kupiškis
1.83
Ataka Vilnius
1.83
Nemunas
1.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Viltis Vilnius
1.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Trivartis Vilnius
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Fortūna Kaunas
1.00
Panevėžys
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Sveikata
1.00
Nevėžis
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alternatyvus FK
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Minija
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Ekranas
0.67
Banga
0.80
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
VGTU Vilkai
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Atmosfera
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.33
FKS Ukmergė
1.33
Jonava
1.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.67
Šilutė
2.00
Fortūna Kaunas
2.00
Panevėžys
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Dainava
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.33
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Sendvaris
3.00
Nemunas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
3.00
BFA
3.00
Sveikata
3.00
Vilnius FA
3.15
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.15
Pempininkai Gargždai
3.15
Narjanta Kupiškis
3.15
Ataka Vilnius
3.15
Dembava
3.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
4.00
Venta
4.00
Širvėna Biržai
5.00
Tera
5.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Saned Joniškis
5.00
Euforija
5.50
Utenis Utena
7.00
Ave.Ko
8.00
Utenos Utena
9.00
Trivartis Vilnius
10.00
Suduva Marijampole is 1.00 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Suduva Marijampole or Draw✗ Miss
74.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole or Panevėžys✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Suduva Marijampole + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Panevėžys✓ Hit
53.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
26%
covers Draw + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Suduva Marijampole, so a minus line means Suduva Marijampole give that many goals of a start and Panevėžys receive them. At -1, Suduva Marijampole must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Suduva Marijampole win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Suduva Marijampole)Actual: Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole -2
9.8%
Draw -2
14.4%
Panevėžys +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Suduva Marijampole)Actual: Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole -1
24.2%
Draw -1
22.2%
Panevėžys +1
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Suduva Marijampole)Actual: Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole +1
74.4%
Draw +1
15.4%
Panevėžys -1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Suduva Marijampole)Actual: Draw
Suduva Marijampole +2
89.7%
Draw +2
7.2%
Panevėžys -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.86
0.43
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.39
0.92
0.42
0.82
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.46
0.54
1.18
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.60
0.50
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.33
0.00
0.67
2.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.64
0.29
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.52
0.67
0.25
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
0.92
0.31
1.18
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.76
1.00
0.40
0.64
1.09
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.22
0.67
0.00
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
MIN (3)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
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Kauno Žalgiris
Hegelmann Litauen
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Šiauliai
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
FK Trakai
Dainava
Neptūną Klaipėda