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Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 0-2
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
39%
31%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W02L03L04L20W20W02L01L03L06LH·HEG11/03H·PAN15/03A·ŠIA19/03A·FK 01/04H·DAI05/04A·DŽI09/04H·BAN14/04A·FK 18/04A·KAU23/04A·HEG28/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.601.361.210.621.94
vs Stronger (9)0.562.220.752.250.402.20
vs Similar (21)1.141.331.600.800.731.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W30W13L10W00D20W10W11D10WA·KAU10/03H·HEG14/03H·SUD19/03A·PAN01/04H·FK 04/04A·DAI08/04H·DŽI15/04A·BAN18/04H·FK 22/04H·KAU29/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.101.750.751.001.50
vs Stronger (3)1.331.672.000.000.005.00
vs Similar (24)1.381.121.690.921.001.36
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.0%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-2 ✓
5.6%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
01234
012%9.6%5.6%1.9%0.5%
112%15%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.8%8.0%4.1%1.4%0.4%
33.2%3.2%1.7%0.6%0.1%
41.0%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.67 points worse than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.56 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
Suduva Marijampole is 0.67 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L03L01L10W20W01L01L00D03LH·HEG11/03H·PAN15/03A·ŠIA19/03A·FK 01/04H·DAI05/04A·DŽI09/04H·BAN14/04A·FK 18/04A·KAU23/04A·HEG28/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.790.500.561.06
vs Stronger (9)0.440.890.501.000.400.80
vs Similar (21)0.760.760.900.300.641.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W30W00D10W00D10W10W00D00DA·KAU10/03H·HEG14/03H·SUD19/03A·PAN01/04H·FK 04/04A·DAI08/04H·DŽI15/04A·BAN18/04H·FK 22/04H·KAU29/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.471.000.310.430.64
vs Stronger (3)0.671.001.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (24)0.710.460.920.380.450.55
vs Weaker (3)1.000.002.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D03L10W00D01L00D03L03LH·HEG11/03H·PAN15/03A·ŠIA19/03A·FK 01/04H·DAI05/04A·DŽI09/04H·BAN14/04A·FK 18/04A·KAU23/04A·HEG28/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.800.570.710.060.88
vs Stronger (9)0.111.330.251.250.001.40
vs Similar (21)0.380.570.700.500.090.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W00D13L00D00D10W00D11D10WA·KAU10/03H·HEG14/03H·SUD19/03A·PAN01/04H·FK 04/04A·DAI08/04H·DŽI15/04A·BAN18/04H·FK 22/04H·KAU29/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.630.750.440.570.86
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.670.670.770.540.550.82
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
SM wins
1
Draws
2
ŠIA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/23AŠiauliai Vs SM3-0
29/10/22AŠiauliai Vs SM2-0
09/07/22HSM Vs Šiauliai2-1
27/04/22HSM Vs Šiauliai2-0
06/03/22AŠiauliai Vs SM0-0

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM6-0
23/04/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM3-0
18/04/23AFK Trakai Vs SM1-0
14/04/23HSM Vs Banga0-2
09/04/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-2
05/04/23HSM Vs Dainava2-0
01/04/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM4-0
19/03/23AŠiauliai Vs SM3-0
15/03/23HSM Vs Panevėžys0-2
11/03/23HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-0

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23HŠIA Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0
22/04/23HŠIA Vs FK Trakai1-1
18/04/23ABanga Vs ŠIA0-1
15/04/23HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-0
08/04/23ADainava Vs ŠIA0-0
04/04/23HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0
01/04/23APanevėžys Vs ŠIA3-1
19/03/23HŠIA Vs Suduva Marijampole3-0
14/03/23HŠIA Vs Hegelmann Litauen3-1
10/03/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs ŠIA0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.31
HomeLWLWL1.67
AwayLWLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%50%24%
AVG goals2.512.542.48
Over 1.5 %80%88%72%
Over 2.5 %43%38%48%
Over 3.5 %20%12%28%
Scored1.141.380.92
Conceded1.371.171.56
BTTS35%46%24%
Clean Sheet31%29%32%
Corners11.0011.0011.00
Cards4.004.00-
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.57
HomeWWWDW1.92
AwayWDLDW1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%54%30%
AVG goals2.062.122.00
Over 1.5 %57%62%52%
Over 2.5 %40%38%43%
Over 3.5 %19%17%22%
Scored1.131.380.87
Conceded0.940.751.13
BTTS34%29%39%
Clean Sheet47%54%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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