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Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Vs
41%
33%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W12L10W43W10W02L10W10W00D03LA·KAU09/11A·BE117/11H·BE123/11A·FK 01/03H·BAN09/03A·PAN16/03H·DŽI28/03H·DAI04/04A·KAU12/04A·FK 16/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.230.930.601.131.87
vs Stronger (7)1.141.861.331.331.002.25
vs Similar (23)1.001.040.830.421.181.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L13L23L31W22D01L23L21W20W22DH·DŽI02/11A·FK 06/11A·DAI09/11A·PAN02/03H·DAI08/03A·HEG15/03H·KAU29/03A·BAN05/04H·FK 12/04H·FK 16/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.531.401.401.201.67
vs Stronger (5)0.801.601.001.670.501.50
vs Similar (21)1.381.481.601.401.181.55
vs Weaker (4)1.501.751.001.002.002.50
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.7%
Under 1.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.3%
Under 2.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.9%
Under 3.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.6%
0-0
14.4%
1-0
13.7%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.1%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
01234
014%10%5.1%1.5%0.3%
114%15%5.9%1.7%0.4%
28.7%7.7%3.4%1.0%0.2%
33.3%2.9%1.3%0.4%0.1%
41.0%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.19 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Suduva Marijampole is 0.31 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.64).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
Suduva Marijampole is 0.47 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D22D00D00D10W10W00D01LA·KAU09/11A·BE117/11H·BE123/11A·FK 01/03H·BAN09/03A·PAN16/03H·DŽI28/03H·DAI04/04A·KAU12/04A·FK 16/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.470.250.250.500.71
vs Stronger (7)0.430.430.670.330.250.50
vs Similar (23)0.350.480.150.230.600.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L12L22D21W10W00D21W01L10W10WH·DŽI02/11A·FK 06/11A·DAI09/11A·PAN02/03H·DAI08/03A·HEG15/03H·KAU29/03A·BAN05/04H·FK 12/04H·FK 16/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.800.600.600.80
vs Stronger (5)0.401.000.331.000.501.00
vs Similar (21)0.760.621.000.600.550.64
vs Weaker (4)0.750.750.500.001.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W11D10W21W10W02L00D00D00D02LA·KAU09/11A·BE117/11H·BE123/11A·FK 01/03H·BAN09/03A·PAN16/03H·DŽI28/03H·DAI04/04A·KAU12/04A·FK 16/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.770.620.380.571.21
vs Stronger (7)0.711.430.671.000.751.75
vs Similar (23)0.570.570.620.230.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L01L10W12L01L02L20W10W12LH·DŽI02/11A·FK 06/11A·DAI09/11A·PAN02/03H·DAI08/03A·HEG15/03H·KAU29/03A·BAN05/04H·FK 12/04H·FK 16/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.830.600.800.600.87
vs Stronger (5)0.400.600.670.670.000.50
vs Similar (21)0.620.860.600.800.640.91
vs Weaker (4)0.751.000.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Suduva Marijampole and Šiauliai have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SM wins
3
Draws
3
ŠIA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole vs Šiauliai · H/A from SM
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/24AŠiauliai Vs SM2-1
28/07/24HSM Vs Šiauliai0-0
21/05/24AŠiauliai Vs SM1-1
23/04/24AŠiauliai Vs SM0-1
01/03/24HSM Vs Šiauliai0-0
25/10/23HSM Vs Šiauliai2-0
08/07/23AŠiauliai Vs SM3-2
02/05/23HSM Vs Šiauliai0-2

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/25AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM3-0
12/04/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM0-0
04/04/25HSM Vs Dainava1-0
28/03/25HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-0
16/03/25APanevėžys Vs SM2-0
09/03/25HSM Vs Banga1-0
01/03/25AFK Trakai Vs SM3-4
23/11/24HSM Vs Be1 NFA1-0
17/11/24ABe1 NFA Vs SM2-1
09/11/24AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM2-4

ŠiauliaiŠiauliai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/25HŠIA Vs FK Trakai2-2
12/04/25HŠIA Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-0
05/04/25ABanga Vs ŠIA1-2
29/03/25HŠIA Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-3
15/03/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs ŠIA1-0
08/03/25HŠIA Vs Dainava2-2
02/03/25APanevėžys Vs ŠIA1-3
09/11/24ADainava Vs ŠIA3-2
06/11/24AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs ŠIA3-1
02/11/24HŠIA Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDL1.20
HomeWWWWW1.46
AwayLWLDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.001.462.50
Over 1.5 %50%38%62%
Over 2.5 %32%17%46%
Over 3.5 %16%8%23%
Scored0.900.751.04
Conceded1.100.711.46
BTTS36%25%46%
Clean Sheet36%50%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.24
HomeLDLWD1.44
AwayLLWLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.662.402.92
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %58%48%68%
Over 3.5 %36%24%48%
Scored1.281.241.32
Conceded1.381.161.60
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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