Suduva Marijampole are the clear favourites, with a 43% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a TransINVEST Vilnius win. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Suduva’s home form shows they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against teams of similar strength, while TransINVEST Vilnius, playing away, boast a prolific 4.0 goals scored and a stingy 0.33 conceded against comparable opponents. The model’s selection is an Under 3.5 with a 79.1% probability. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw 30%, and the away win 27%. The only suggested pick is Under 3.5, hit with 79.1%.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw stunned fans as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to deliver, a sharp reversal of the 4-game winning streak that Suduva Marijampole had built at home. The model had given the home side a 43% chance of triumph, but the match finished in a stalemate, proving the prediction wrong. The model’s single other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark, with a 79.1% probability. Suduva’s recent form note highlighted a four-game winning run, while TransINVEST Vilnius arrived after a win, yet both sides could not break the deadlock. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius win✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suduva Marijampole
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.07
1.46
1.31
1.41
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
0.91
1.40
1.10
1.17
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.20
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.00
0.67
2.36
0.71
3.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.57
0.57
1.50
0.75
4.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
3.13
0.70
2.70
0.70
3.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.9%
Under 3.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
11.5%
0-0 ✓
10.9%
2-1
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.9%
Suduva Marijampole goals ↓
TransINVEST Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.4%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.6%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.8%
3.8%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suduva Marijampole goals (down), columns = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.40
Banga
1.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
0.83
Hegelmann Litauen
0.71
Šiauliai
0.43
Suduva Marijampole is 1.23 points better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.40
Banga
1.67
Hegelmann Litauen
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Šiauliai
0.71
Panevėžys
0.67
Suduva Marijampole is 1.27 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.20
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
Panevėžys
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.71
Suduva Marijampole is 1.05 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.38
0.69
0.53
0.24
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.36
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.43
1.62
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.29
0.50
0.50
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.48
0.35
1.20
0.40
1.69
0.31
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suduva Marijampole
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.08
0.62
0.88
0.65
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.55
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.33
1.36
0.29
1.94
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.71
0.29
1.00
0.25
2.67
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.65
0.35
1.50
0.30
1.77
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
4 previous meetings
1
SM wins
2
Draws
1
TV wins
Head-to-head
Suduva Marijampole vs TransINVEST Vilnius · H/A from SM
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai