Suhareka’s recent 0-2 loss to Vëllaznimi has left them looking to rebound, while 2 Korriku arrive on a five-game winning streak, having edged Tefik Canga 1-0. The model favours a Suhareka victory, giving the home side a 55 % chance of triumph, a 20 % chance of a draw and a 24 % chance of an away win. The expected total goals sit at 4.1, with the most likely total being 6 + goals, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Suhareka, with an 8.3 % chance. Suhareka averages 2.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents, whereas 2 Korriku averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.44 conceded on the road against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.2 %, Under 7.5 at 94.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.1 %, Over 1.5 at 92.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.8 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.5 % and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 90.5 %.
Results analysis
Suhareka’s win over 2 Korriku extended their recent run, as the home side came off a victory to finish the match 2-1. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win with a 56% probability, and it proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 matched the final result, and the predicted 6+ total goals, while unlikely, reflected the high-scoring nature of the game. Every suggested pick hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9%, Under 7.5 at 94.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.9%, Over 1.5 at 92.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.8%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.5% and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 90.3%. The model’s selections performed strongly, confirming the predicted outcome and the accuracy of its probability estimates.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suhareka win✓ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suhareka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
1.93
1.27
1.80
2.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
0.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (21)
2.10
1.71
2.27
1.27
1.90
2.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
1.50
0.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (2 Korriku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
2 Korriku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.57
1.87
1.00
1.33
2.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.00
-
-
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.52
1.83
0.83
1.67
2.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.2%
Under 1.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.5%
Under 2.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.2%
No
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.3%
1-1
7.4%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
3-2
5.5%
1-2
5.5%
2-0
5.1%
4-1
4.2%
Suhareka goals ↓
2 Korriku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
2.0%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
1
3.5%
7.4%
5.5%
3.0%
1.2%
2
5.1%
8.3%
6.7%
3.6%
1.5%
3
4.2%
6.8%
5.5%
3.0%
1.2%
4
2.6%
4.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suhareka goals (down), columns = 2 Korriku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Suhareka is 0.15 points better than 2 Korriku in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Suhareka is 0.24 goals better than 2 Korriku in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Suhareka is 0.09 goals better than 2 Korriku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Suhareka or Draw✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
20%
24%
covers Suhareka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suhareka or 2 Korriku✓ Hit
79.7%
Avg Implied -
56%
20%
24%
covers Suhareka + 2 Korriku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or 2 Korriku✗ Miss
44.5%
Avg Implied -
56%
20%
24%
covers Draw + 2 Korriku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Suhareka over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.5%
Under
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Suhareka, so a minus line means Suhareka give that many goals of a start and 2 Korriku receive them. At -1, Suhareka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Suhareka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Suhareka)Actual: 2 Korriku
Suhareka -2
19.7%
Draw -2
16.4%
2 Korriku +2
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Suhareka)Actual: Draw
Suhareka -1
36.0%
Draw -1
19.5%
2 Korriku +1
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Suhareka)Actual: Suhareka
Suhareka +1
75.8%
Draw +1
12.6%
2 Korriku -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Suhareka)Actual: Suhareka
Suhareka +2
88.5%
Draw +2
7.1%
2 Korriku -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suhareka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.56
0.25
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.65
0.55
0.18
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (2 Korriku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
2 Korriku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.88
0.25
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.38
1.00
0.08
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.4%
Under 0.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.7%
Under 2.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suhareka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.20
1.44
1.06
1.14
1.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.00
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.05
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.40
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (2 Korriku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
2 Korriku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.94
0.81
0.64
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
1.14
0.83
0.75
0.78
1.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
1.33
1.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
Under 0.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.7%
Under 1.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
28.3%
Under 2.5
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →