Suhareka are the clear favorites to win at home, with a 45% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of a Kika win. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals in total, and the most probable total is two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.1% chance. Suhareka have been solid at home against similarly ranked opponents, scoring an average of 1.89 goals and conceding 1.33. Kika, on the other hand, have struggled away, scoring only 0.7 and conceding 1.1 on average. The model’s selection includes an Under 3.5 goal pick at 80.6%. The recent form story is that Suhareka come off a win, while Kika come off a draw. All figures are presented as percentages, and every selection is named with its probability.
Results analysis
Suhareka’s win extends their recent run, finishing the match 3-1 to secure a home victory. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win with a 45% probability, and the call proved correct. The only suggested selection was Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.6% probability, but it missed as the match produced four goals. Suhareka entered the game on a winning streak, having just beaten 2 Korriku 2-1, while Kika arrived after a draw, having drawn 1-1 with Dinamo Ferizaj. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home side’s triumph, matching the model’s prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suhareka win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kika win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suhareka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.57
1.53
1.47
1.47
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.65
1.45
1.89
1.33
1.45
1.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.21
1.21
1.07
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.80
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.10
1.05
1.45
1.00
0.70
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.6%
Under 2.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
11.6%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.4%
Suhareka goals ↓
Kika goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.3%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.4%
8.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.2%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suhareka goals (down), columns = Kika goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Suhareka is 0.32 points better than Kika in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Suhareka is 1.03 goals better than Kika in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Suhareka is 0.53 goals worse than Kika in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suhareka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.65
0.47
0.54
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.55
0.36
0.45
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.38
0.38
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
68% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suhareka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
0.71
1.18
1.00
1.08
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.05
1.00
1.20
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.40
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.45
0.64
0.64
0.73
0.27
0.55
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.53
0.88
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kika over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →