Suhareka’s return to home ground after a win against 2 Korriku sets up a tightly contested clash with Trepça Mitrovicë, who are still rattling off a defeat. The model sees no clear favourite, but the single most likely outcome is a home win, with a 39% chance of Suhareka triumphing, 26% for a draw, and 35% for Trepça. The expected total of 3.1 goals translates to an average of about 2 goals per match, and the most probable exact score is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability. Suhareka’s home form shows they score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 1.5 against similarly strong opposition, while Trepça’s away numbers are 2.0 scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, is hit with an 82.4% probability. All figures are presented as percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact probability.
Results analysis
The win for Suhareka extends their recent run, as they came off a victory to face Trepça Mitrovicë. The model had picked a home win with a 39% probability, and that call proved correct as Suhareka edged the match 2-1. The predicted most likely score was 2-1, and the actual result matched that, confirming the model’s accuracy. The model also suggested Over 1.5 goals with an 82.4% probability, and this selection hit as the game saw three goals. All of the model’s selections were settled, and the final score of 2-1 was the exact outcome the model anticipated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suhareka win✓ Hit
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suhareka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.63
1.67
1.47
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.62
2.00
1.50
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
1.54
1.75
1.33
1.50
1.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.60
1.00
2.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.94
1.39
1.90
1.10
2.00
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
0-1
5.7%
0-0
5.7%
Suhareka goals ↓
Trepça Mitrovicë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.7%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.2%
12%
8.1%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.1%
4.6%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suhareka goals (down), columns = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Suhareka is 0.29 points better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Suhareka is 0.32 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Suhareka is 0.03 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suhareka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.56
0.44
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.52
0.82
0.45
0.70
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suhareka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
0.81
1.12
1.00
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.40
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.90
1.00
0.64
0.50
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.00
1.10
0.70
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →