Suhareka enter the match on a shaky patch, having lost their opening game before bouncing back with two wins, yet their last outing ended 0-2 at Vëllaznimi. Trepça Mitrovicë, on the other hand, have been in a slump, losing four of five away fixtures and suffering a 0-5 defeat to Dinamo Ferizaj. The model therefore rates Suhareka as the clear favourite, assigning a 64% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 17% for an away win, and picks a home victory as the most likely result. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the single most probable scoreline being 2-1 for Suhareka at 9%. Suhareka’s home form shows they average 2.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar opponents, while Trepça Mitrovicë, playing away, average 1.58 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (95.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Home +2 handicap (92.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (92.1%), Under 6.5 (90.6%), Over 1.5 (90.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.9%) and Home or Draw (82.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suhareka win
64.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë win
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suhareka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.73
1.87
1.27
1.80
2.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
0.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
2.09
1.68
2.25
1.25
1.90
2.20
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
0.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.10
1.13
2.07
1.13
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.60
1.50
3.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.96
1.17
1.92
1.45
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.4%
Under 2.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.7%
2-0
7.1%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
3-2
4.9%
4-1
4.9%
Suhareka goals ↓
Trepça Mitrovicë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
2.1%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
1
4.9%
7.8%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
2
7.1%
9.1%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
6.0%
7.7%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
4
3.8%
4.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suhareka goals (down), columns = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Suhareka is 0.29 points better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Suhareka is 0.32 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Suhareka is 0.03 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Suhareka or Draw
83.3%
Avg Implied -
64%
19%
17%
covers Suhareka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suhareka or Trepça Mitrovicë
80.9%
Avg Implied -
64%
19%
17%
covers Suhareka + Trepça Mitrovicë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trepça Mitrovicë
35.8%
Avg Implied -
64%
19%
17%
covers Draw + Trepça Mitrovicë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Suhareka over/under 0.5
Over
92.1%
Under
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 3.5
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Suhareka, so a minus line means Suhareka give that many goals of a start and Trepça Mitrovicë receive them. At -1, Suhareka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Suhareka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Suhareka)
Suhareka -2
25.1%
Draw -2
18.7%
Trepça Mitrovicë +2
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Suhareka)
Suhareka -1
43.8%
Draw -1
20.4%
Trepça Mitrovicë +1
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Suhareka)
Suhareka +1
83.3%
Draw +1
9.9%
Trepça Mitrovicë -1
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Suhareka)
Suhareka +2
93.1%
Draw +2
4.7%
Trepça Mitrovicë -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suhareka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.62
0.25
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.67
0.58
0.25
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.71
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
-
-
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.71
0.69
0.77
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suhareka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.13
1.50
0.94
1.14
1.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.00
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.00
1.92
0.92
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.79
0.93
0.69
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
-
-
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.08
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vëllaznimi
Dinamo Ferizaj
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
FC Besa Peja
Prishtina e Re
Istogu
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Ferizaj
Tefik Canga