The match between Suhareka and Vëllaznimi is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are close: 31% for a Suhareka victory, 28% for a draw, and 41% for Vëllaznimi to come out on top. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high scoring game, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 26% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance of that exact result.
Suhareka, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. Vëllaznimi, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.09 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include an 76% chance that the total will exceed 1.5 goals and a 71.9% chance that it will stay under 3.5 goals. Each selection is presented with its own probability, and the edge for the over 1.5 pick is noted. This balanced outlook reflects the recent form of both sides, with Suhareka fresh from a win and Vëllaznimi riding a three-game winning streak.
Results analysis
The away side secured a 1-3 victory, extending their three-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, Away win, came through with a 41% probability, and the call was correct. The predicted 2-goal total fell short of the 2.7 expectation, yet the Over 1.5 selection hit, reflecting the 76% chance, while the Under 3.5 missed, as the 71.9% probability proved too optimistic. Home form was mixed with a recent win, but the stronger opposition and higher conceding average left the home side vulnerable. The model’s suggested picks were largely accurate, with only the Under 3.5 falling short. Overall, the predictions matched the outcome well.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Suhareka win✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi win✓ Hit
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Suhareka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.53
1.73
1.40
1.67
1.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.90
1.48
2.10
1.40
1.73
1.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vëllaznimi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vëllaznimi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
0.85
1.85
0.62
1.38
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.74
0.83
1.92
0.58
1.55
1.09
Clean sheet %
42% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
7.2%
2-2
5.5%
Suhareka goals ↓
Vëllaznimi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.7%
7.2%
3.5%
1.3%
1
7.2%
13%
8.8%
4.3%
1.5%
2
5.2%
7.5%
5.5%
2.6%
1.0%
3
2.1%
3.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Suhareka goals (down), columns = Vëllaznimi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Suhareka is 0.76 points worse than Vëllaznimi in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Suhareka is 0.06 goals better than Vëllaznimi in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Suhareka is 0.85 goals worse than Vëllaznimi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Suhareka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.59
0.41
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.55
0.55
0.36
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vëllaznimi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vëllaznimi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.73
0.45
0.82
0.55
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.42
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
55% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Suhareka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.13
0.82
1.12
1.08
1.15
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.10
1.09
1.18
1.11
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.40
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Vëllaznimi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vëllaznimi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.41
1.18
0.18
0.27
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.47
1.20
0.20
0.22
0.78
Clean sheet %
64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vëllaznimi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →