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Sumqayıt vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
46%
31%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✓ Hit
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W02L10W12L00D20W01L21W13LA·KAP04/05H·SƏB12/05A·SAB18/05H·QAB25/05H·FEH25/07A·FEH31/07H·KAP03/08A·TUR11/08H·SƏB17/08A·SAB25/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.071.071.071.001.07
vs Stronger (12)0.751.500.831.500.671.50
vs Similar (18)1.220.781.220.781.220.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L02L10W01L01L02L22D14L10W11DA·NEF13/04H·SƏB21/04A·ZIR29/04H·SAB05/05H·TUR11/05A·QAB19/05H·QAR26/05H·QAR02/08H·ŞAM10/08H·NEF24/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.530.881.310.791.79
vs Stronger (4)1.502.501.672.331.003.00
vs Similar (20)0.701.250.780.890.641.55
vs Weaker (6)0.831.830.501.501.502.50
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.6%
Under 1.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
13.9%
0-0
12.9%
2-0
9.9%
0-1 ✓
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.3%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
013%8.5%4.1%1.2%0.2%
114%14%5.4%1.5%0.3%
29.9%8.4%3.5%1.0%0.2%
34.3%3.7%1.5%0.4%0.1%
41.4%1.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Sumqayıt is 0.69 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Sumqayıt is 0.08 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Sumqayıt is 0.67 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W01L00D11D00D10W01L00D11DA·KAP04/05H·SƏB12/05A·SAB18/05H·QAB25/05H·FEH25/07A·FEH31/07H·KAP03/08A·TUR11/08H·SƏB17/08A·SAB25/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.370.530.400.600.33
vs Stronger (12)0.420.580.500.670.330.50
vs Similar (18)0.670.220.560.220.780.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D01L00D00D12L02L00D10WA·NEF13/04H·SƏB21/04A·ZIR29/04H·SAB05/05H·TUR11/05A·QAB19/05H·QAR26/05H·QAR02/08H·ŞAM10/08H·NEF24/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.700.380.500.360.93
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.331.330.002.00
vs Similar (20)0.250.550.330.330.180.73
vs Weaker (6)0.830.670.500.251.501.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L10W01L00D10W00D21W02LA·KAP04/05H·SƏB12/05A·SAB18/05H·QAB25/05H·FEH25/07A·FEH31/07H·KAP03/08A·TUR11/08H·SƏB17/08A·SAB25/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.530.670.400.73
vs Stronger (12)0.330.920.330.830.331.00
vs Similar (18)0.560.560.670.560.440.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W00D01L02L10W12L10W01LA·NEF13/04H·SƏB21/04A·ZIR29/04H·SAB05/05H·TUR11/05A·QAB19/05H·QAR26/05H·QAR02/08H·ŞAM10/08H·NEF24/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.500.810.430.86
vs Stronger (4)1.251.001.331.001.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.450.700.440.560.450.82
vs Weaker (6)0.001.170.001.250.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sumqayıt's squad is €3m more valuable than Araz's (€9m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Araz have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Araz have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sumqayıt's defence is €2m more valuable than Araz's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
SUM wins
2
Draws
0
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Araz · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/24HSUM Vs Araz1-0
28/01/24AAraz Vs SUM1-1
04/11/23HSUM Vs Araz2-0
25/08/23AAraz Vs SUM1-1

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/24ASabah FA Vs SUM3-1
17/08/24HSUM Vs Səbail2-1
11/08/24ATuran Vs SUM1-0
03/08/24HSUM Vs Kapaz2-0
31/07/24AFehérvár FC Vs SUM0-0
25/07/24HSUM Vs Fehérvár FC1-2
25/05/24HSUM Vs Qabala1-0
18/05/24ASabah FA Vs SUM2-0
12/05/24HSUM Vs Səbail2-1
04/05/24AKapaz Vs SUM1-1

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/24HARA Vs Neftchi Baku1-1
10/08/24HARA Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
02/08/24HARA Vs Qarabag1-4
26/05/24HARA Vs Qarabag2-2
19/05/24AQabala Vs ARA2-0
11/05/24HARA Vs Turan0-1
05/05/24HARA Vs Sabah FA0-1
29/04/24AZira Vs ARA0-1
21/04/24HARA Vs Səbail0-2
13/04/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.42
HomeWWLWW1.46
AwayDLDLL1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.242.192.29
Over 1.5 %60%54%67%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored0.980.881.08
Conceded1.261.311.21
BTTS44%35%54%
Clean Sheet38%50%25%
Corners10.506.0015.00
Cards7.0010.004.00
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD1.36
HomeLDLWD1.59
AwayLLLWL1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%30%
AVG goals2.542.192.96
Over 1.5 %76%70%83%
Over 2.5 %42%33%52%
Over 3.5 %22%15%30%
Scored1.241.221.26
Conceded1.300.961.70
BTTS46%37%57%
Clean Sheet28%41%13%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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