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Sumqayıt vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 2-1
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
39%
27%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L02L11D01L13L13L12L10W20W12LA·KAP27/02A·ZIR03/03A·KAR07/03H·ŞAM13/03A·SAB19/03H·NEF05/04A·TUR12/04H·QAB19/04A·IMI25/04A·KAP02/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.471.151.691.291.29
vs Stronger (11)0.912.181.002.500.801.80
vs Similar (18)1.331.111.291.001.361.18
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W01L06L21W10W24L12L03L11D01LA·KAR21/02H·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04H·TUR17/04A·QAB25/04H·IMI02/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.771.121.501.362.07
vs Stronger (3)0.335.330.005.000.505.50
vs Similar (21)1.241.671.091.551.401.80
vs Weaker (6)1.670.331.500.502.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
07.0%6.7%5.4%2.4%0.8%
17.5%13%8.0%3.6%1.2%
26.4%8.7%5.9%2.7%0.9%
33.2%4.3%2.9%1.3%0.5%
41.2%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sumqayıt is 0.21 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sumqayıt is 0.02 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Sumqayıt is 0.23 goals better than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L00D00D01L01L01L10W10W00DA·KAP27/02A·ZIR03/03A·KAR07/03H·ŞAM13/03A·SAB19/03H·NEF05/04A·TUR12/04H·QAB19/04A·IMI25/04A·KAP02/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.380.690.410.65
vs Stronger (11)0.271.000.331.000.201.00
vs Similar (18)0.390.500.430.430.360.55
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D03L20W00D22D01L00D00D01LA·KAR21/02H·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04H·TUR17/04A·QAB25/04H·IMI02/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.620.560.431.00
vs Stronger (3)0.002.330.002.000.002.50
vs Similar (21)0.570.710.640.550.500.90
vs Weaker (6)0.670.170.750.250.500.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D01L12L12L11D00D10W12LA·KAP27/02A·ZIR03/03A·KAR07/03H·ŞAM13/03A·SAB19/03H·NEF05/04A·TUR12/04H·QAB19/04A·IMI25/04A·KAP02/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.771.000.880.65
vs Stronger (11)0.641.180.671.500.600.80
vs Similar (18)0.940.610.860.571.000.64
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L03L01L10W02L11D03L11D00DA·KAR21/02H·ZIR27/02A·QAR08/03H·KAR13/03A·ŞAM18/03H·SAB07/04A·NEF11/04H·TUR17/04A·QAB25/04H·IMI02/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.000.500.940.931.07
vs Stronger (3)0.333.000.003.000.503.00
vs Similar (21)0.670.950.451.000.900.90
vs Weaker (6)1.000.170.750.251.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt's squad is €3m more valuable than Araz's (€9m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Araz have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Araz have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's defence is €2m more valuable than Araz's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SUM wins
2
Draws
4
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Araz · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/26AAraz Vs SUM1-0
02/11/25HSUM Vs Araz3-2
07/04/25AAraz Vs SUM2-0
01/02/25HSUM Vs Araz0-0
10/11/24AAraz Vs SUM1-0
30/08/24HSUM Vs Araz0-1
31/03/24HSUM Vs Araz1-0
28/01/24AAraz Vs SUM1-1

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26AKapaz Vs SUM2-1
25/04/26AImisli FK Vs SUM0-2
19/04/26HSUM Vs Qabala1-0
12/04/26ATuran Vs SUM2-1
05/04/26HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku1-3
19/03/26ASabah FA Vs SUM3-1
13/03/26HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK0-1
07/03/26AKarvan Vs SUM1-1
03/03/26AZira Vs SUM2-0
27/02/26AKapaz Vs SUM3-0

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/26HARA Vs Imisli FK0-1
25/04/26AQabala Vs ARA1-1
17/04/26HARA Vs Turan0-3
11/04/26ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA2-1
07/04/26HARA Vs Sabah FA2-4
18/03/26AŞamaxı FK Vs ARA0-1
13/03/26HARA Vs Karvan2-1
08/03/26AQarabag Vs ARA6-0
27/02/26HARA Vs Zira0-1
21/02/26AKarvan Vs ARA0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.08
HomeLDLLW1.00
AwayDLLWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%26%33%
AVG goals2.642.962.37
Over 1.5 %74%74%74%
Over 2.5 %52%61%44%
Over 3.5 %28%39%19%
Scored1.161.221.11
Conceded1.481.741.26
BTTS44%43%44%
Clean Sheet24%26%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.28
HomeLWLLL1.44
AwayWLWLD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.762.523.00
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %48%44%52%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.121.081.16
Conceded1.641.441.84
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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