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Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 2-2
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
36%
30%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L04L02L30W21W33D02L12L13LH·ZIR15/02A·NEF21/02H·SAB27/02H·QAR03/03H·KAP10/03A·TUR16/03H·SAB29/03A·ARA07/04H·ŞAM12/04A·ZIR20/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.530.941.620.431.43
vs Stronger (15)0.601.930.751.880.432.00
vs Similar (15)0.801.131.121.380.430.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L11D21W11D12L20W24L03L11DH·KAP28/02A·KAP05/03H·TUR10/03A·SƏB16/03H·ARA29/03H·SAB02/04A·ŞAM07/04H·ZIR13/04A·QAR19/04A·SAB23/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.331.471.181.081.54
vs Stronger (4)0.002.750.002.000.003.50
vs Similar (12)1.081.331.141.571.001.00
vs Weaker (14)1.860.932.120.621.501.33
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.5%
1-0
9.8%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
011%9.5%6.3%2.5%0.7%
19.8%14%7.7%3.0%0.9%
26.8%7.9%4.7%1.8%0.5%
32.7%3.2%1.9%0.7%0.2%
40.8%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Sumqayıt is 0.28 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Sumqayıt is 0.22 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Sumqayıt is 0.11 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D02L10W11D11D01L10W02LH·ZIR15/02A·NEF21/02H·SAB27/02H·QAR03/03H·KAP10/03A·TUR16/03H·SAB29/03A·ARA07/04H·ŞAM12/04A·ZIR20/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.630.500.620.140.64
vs Stronger (15)0.270.800.380.750.140.86
vs Similar (15)0.400.470.620.500.140.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D21W11D11D10W21W03L11DH·KAP28/02A·KAP05/03H·TUR10/03A·SƏB16/03H·ARA29/03H·SAB02/04A·ŞAM07/04H·ZIR13/04A·QAR19/04A·SAB23/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.880.410.621.08
vs Stronger (4)0.001.750.000.500.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.500.710.570.400.40
vs Weaker (14)1.140.571.250.251.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L04L00D20W10W22D01L02L11DH·ZIR15/02A·NEF21/02H·SAB27/02H·QAR03/03H·KAP10/03A·TUR16/03H·SAB29/03A·ARA07/04H·ŞAM12/04A·ZIR20/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.441.000.290.79
vs Stronger (15)0.331.130.381.120.291.14
vs Similar (15)0.400.670.500.880.290.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D00D00D01L10W03L00D00DH·KAP28/02A·KAP05/03H·TUR10/03A·SƏB16/03H·ARA29/03H·SAB02/04A·ŞAM07/04H·ZIR13/04A·QAR19/04A·SAB23/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.590.760.460.46
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.001.500.000.50
vs Similar (12)0.500.830.431.000.600.60
vs Weaker (14)0.710.360.880.380.500.33
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sumqayıt's squad is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€9m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Neftchi Baku have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Neftchi Baku have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sumqayıt's defence is €2m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€4m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SUM wins
2
Draws
3
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-0
08/12/24HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku2-0
28/09/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-1
07/04/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-1
04/02/24HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku2-1
11/11/23ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-2
02/09/23HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku0-1
08/04/23HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku0-4

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/25AZira Vs SUM3-1
12/04/25HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-2
07/04/25AAraz Vs SUM2-0
29/03/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA3-3
16/03/25ATuran Vs SUM1-2
10/03/25HSUM Vs Kapaz3-0
03/03/25HSUM Vs Qarabag0-2
27/02/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-4
21/02/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-0
15/02/25HSUM Vs Zira0-3

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/25ASabah FA Vs NB1-1
19/04/25AQarabag Vs NB3-0
13/04/25HNB Vs Zira2-4
07/04/25AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-2
02/04/25HNB Vs Sabah FA1-2
29/03/25HNB Vs Araz1-1
16/03/25ASəbail Vs NB1-2
10/03/25HNB Vs Turan1-1
05/03/25AKapaz Vs NB1-0
28/02/25HNB Vs Kapaz1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.08
HomeLLWDL1.30
AwayLLWLL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%37%17%
AVG goals2.142.301.96
Over 1.5 %60%67%52%
Over 2.5 %36%44%26%
Over 3.5 %18%15%22%
Scored0.821.000.61
Conceded1.321.301.35
BTTS36%37%35%
Clean Sheet32%37%26%
Corners10.506.0015.00
Cards7.0010.004.00
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.38
HomeWDDLL1.59
AwayLWWLD1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%26%
AVG goals2.642.632.65
Over 1.5 %76%70%83%
Over 2.5 %46%48%43%
Over 3.5 %22%22%22%
Scored1.341.561.09
Conceded1.301.071.57
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet30%33%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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