Neftchi Baku is expected to come out on top in this Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa fixture, with the model picking an away win. This match is likely to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.5%.
Sumqayıt has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.5 goals and conceding 3.17 goals against stronger opponents. Neftchi Baku, on the other hand, has excelled on the road, scoring 2.29 goals and conceding just 0.71 goals against weaker opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals is its selection, with an 81.1% probability. The away win is the most likely outcome, with a 54% chance, while the home win has a 21% chance and the draw a 24% chance. The home win percentage is 21%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 54%.
Results analysis
The win extends Sumqayıt's run of consecutive losses to four, following a 1-3 defeat at home against Neftchi Baku. The actual result was an away win, as predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly identified Neftchi Baku as the favourite with a 57% probability of winning. The model's selection of an away win proved correct. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, also came in with an 81.3% probability, making it a hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied 21.0% · @ 4.31
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.64
Marathonbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.46
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.53
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.45
Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied 52.8% · @ 1.71
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Dafabet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.50
1.54
1.69
1.29
1.35
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.45
1.50
2.83
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.00
1.57
0.71
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.07
2.29
1.29
1.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.58
1.00
2.00
1.20
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
2.53
0.80
2.71
0.86
2.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.25+7.9%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 3.46-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
10Bet
3.60
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.85+7.8%
Under 2.5
42.0%
@ 1.86-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.95
Betano
1.87
888Sport
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
888Sport
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.6%
@ 3.11+5.8%
Under 3.5
64.4%
@ 1.31-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
@ 1.78+5.7%
No
42.9%
@ 1.88-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
No
1xBet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 6.36+4.4%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.42+4.1%
0-2
9.4%@ 7.48+3.6%
0-1
8.6%@ 6.38+1.8%
1-3 ✓
6.5%@ 12.37+3.0%
0-3
6.1%@ 12.59+2.7%
0-0
5.9%@ 9.84+1.6%
2-1
5.4%@ 12.91+2.1%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
8.6%
9.4%
6.1%
3.0%
1
4.2%
11%
9.9%
6.5%
3.2%
2
2.8%
5.4%
5.3%
3.4%
1.7%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.2%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Safa Baku
1.05
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Sumqayıt is 0.60 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Safa Baku
0.98
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Sumqayıt is 0.41 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.64
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Sumqayıt is 0.56 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sumqayıt or Draw✗ Miss
42.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
57%
covers Sumqayıt + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt or Neftchi Baku✓ Hit
76.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
57%
covers Sumqayıt + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neftchi Baku✓ Hit
80.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
57%
covers Draw + Neftchi Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.46
0.77
0.41
0.65
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.18
0.33
1.33
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.44
0.57
0.29
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.07
0.43
0.56
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.40
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.27
1.29
0.14
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.08
0.92
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.27
1.17
1.50
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.56
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neftchi Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.21
0.86
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.53
1.43
0.71
1.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Sumqayıt's squad is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€9m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Sumqayıt and Neftchi Baku have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Neftchi Baku have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Sumqayıt's defence is €2m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€4m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Turan
Imisli FK
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz