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Sumqayıt vs Qabala Result & Analysis

Date: 25/05/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
41%
30%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qabala win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L10W11D00D41W10W11D21W02LA·SƏB08/03H·SAB17/03H·ARA31/03A·NEF07/04H·ZIR12/04A·TUR19/04H·QAR28/04A·KAP04/05H·SƏB12/05A·SAB18/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.100.880.811.071.43
vs Stronger (14)0.711.640.861.290.572.00
vs Similar (16)1.190.620.890.441.570.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D01L04L12L22D01L32W20W20WA·SAB09/03A·ARA16/03H·NEF29/03A·ZIR07/04H·TUR13/04A·QAR20/04H·KAP28/04A·SƏB06/05H·SAB12/05H·ARA19/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.730.941.560.931.93
vs Stronger (13)0.691.920.711.430.672.50
vs Similar (17)1.121.591.111.671.121.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
Under 2.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0 ✓
10.7%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Qabala goals →
01234
010%8.5%5.3%1.9%0.5%
111%14%6.9%2.5%0.7%
28.0%8.5%4.6%1.6%0.4%
33.5%3.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.2%1.2%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Qabala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Sumqayıt is 0.86 points better than Qabala in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 0.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Sumqayıt is 0.19 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Sumqayıt is 0.72 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W10W00D20W00D00D20W01LA·SƏB08/03H·SAB17/03H·ARA31/03A·NEF07/04H·ZIR12/04A·TUR19/04H·QAR28/04A·KAP04/05H·SƏB12/05A·SAB18/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.400.500.310.640.50
vs Stronger (14)0.430.710.570.570.290.86
vs Similar (16)0.690.120.440.111.000.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L01L03L00D10W01L22D20W00DA·SAB09/03A·ARA16/03H·NEF29/03A·ZIR07/04H·TUR13/04A·QAR20/04H·KAP28/04A·SƏB06/05H·SAB12/05H·ARA19/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.670.500.500.360.86
vs Stronger (13)0.460.770.570.570.331.00
vs Similar (17)0.410.590.440.440.380.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D01L00D21W10W11D01L01LA·SƏB08/03H·SAB17/03H·ARA31/03A·NEF07/04H·ZIR12/04A·TUR19/04H·QAR28/04A·KAP04/05H·SƏB12/05A·SAB18/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.700.380.500.430.93
vs Stronger (14)0.290.930.290.710.291.14
vs Similar (16)0.500.500.440.330.570.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L12L12L00D10W00D20WA·SAB09/03A·ARA16/03H·NEF29/03A·ZIR07/04H·TUR13/04A·QAR20/04H·KAP28/04A·SƏB06/05H·SAB12/05H·ARA19/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.070.441.060.571.07
vs Stronger (13)0.231.150.140.860.331.50
vs Similar (17)0.711.000.671.220.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sumqayıt's squad is €5m more valuable than Qabala's (€9m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's attack is €3m more valuable than Qabala's (€4m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Qabala have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sumqayıt's defence is €1m more valuable than Qabala's (€4m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
2
SUM wins
2
Draws
3
QAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Qabala · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
23/01/24AQabala Vs SUM0-1
29/10/23HSUM Vs Qabala0-0
19/08/23AQabala Vs SUM1-2
23/04/23HSUM Vs Qabala2-3
18/02/23AQabala Vs SUM2-1
29/11/22HSUM Vs Qabala1-1
17/09/22AQabala Vs SUM1-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/24ASabah FA Vs SUM2-0
12/05/24HSUM Vs Səbail2-1
04/05/24AKapaz Vs SUM1-1
28/04/24HSUM Vs Qarabag1-0
19/04/24ATuran Vs SUM1-4
12/04/24HSUM Vs Zira0-0
07/04/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-1
31/03/24HSUM Vs Araz1-0
17/03/24HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-2
08/03/24ASəbail Vs SUM0-1

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/24HQAB Vs Araz2-0
12/05/24HQAB Vs Sabah FA2-0
06/05/24ASəbail Vs QAB2-3
28/04/24HQAB Vs Kapaz0-1
20/04/24AQarabag Vs QAB2-2
13/04/24HQAB Vs Turan1-2
07/04/24AZira Vs QAB4-0
29/03/24HQAB Vs Neftchi Baku0-1
16/03/24AAraz Vs QAB1-1
09/03/24ASabah FA Vs QAB2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.40
HomeLWDWW1.28
AwayWDWDL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals2.422.322.52
Over 1.5 %62%52%72%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored0.980.761.20
Conceded1.441.561.32
BTTS44%32%56%
Clean Sheet36%48%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW0.90
HomeLLLWW1.04
AwayLDLDW0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%32%16%
AVG goals2.902.763.04
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.081.200.96
Conceded1.821.562.08
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners10.0013.007.00
Cards6.006.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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