Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Sumqayit’s recent five matches have ended in four losses and a win, leaving the team struggling to score, with an average of 0.14 goals per game and conceding 2.57. Qarabag, meanwhile, has won four of its last five away games, scoring 1.75 and conceding just 1.12 against weaker opposition. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 64% probability to Qarabag triumphing. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring affair, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 0-2 for Qarabag, with a 13.1% chance. Home win probability sits at 13%, draw at 23%, and away win at 64%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.5% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.3%. The model’s edge on the Over 1.5 selection is 74.5%.

The final score was 1-6, an away win that far surpassed the model’s expected total of 2.6 goals. The model’s favourite was an away win, with a 64% probability, and that call was correct. The model’s top total-goals pick was 2 goals at 26% probability, which was missed. The suggested pick Over 1.5 goals, at 74.5%, hit, while Under 3.5, at 73.3%, missed. Sumqayit’s recent run of four straight defeats ended with a 0-1 loss, whereas Qarabag entered the match on a winning streak, beating Sumqayit 1-0 in their previous encounter. The match confirmed the model’s prediction of an away triumph and highlighted the high-scoring nature of the game.