Sumqayit’s recent form has been a worrying 0-1 loss after four straight defeats, while Qarabag comes off a win and averages 3.1 goals per game away. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning it a 73% probability. Home win sits at 9%, draw 18%. The expected total goals is 3.2, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Qarabag, with a 12.1% chance. Sumqayit scores only 0.71 goals at home and concedes 1.43, whereas Qarabag scores 3.1 and concedes just 1.0 when playing away. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83.4% and an away win at 72.8%. The model’s edge for the over is 83.4%, while the edge for the away win is 72.8%.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Sumqayit snapped a four-game losing streak to win 1-0, overturning the model’s prediction that Qarabag would triumph. The pre-match favourite was the away side, with a 73% chance of victory, but the outcome proved the opposite. The model’s other selections also fell short: Over 1.5 goals, projected at 83.4%, missed, and the away win pick at 72.8% was another miss. The final score of 1-0 gave Sumqayit a home win, a result that the model did not foresee. The game’s 3-goal total expectation of 3.2 and the most likely 3-goal scoreline were not realised, underscoring the unpredictability of this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
9.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag win✗ Miss
72.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.73
0.87
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.64
0.71
1.43
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
0.75
0.38
1.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
1.43
2.57
1.21
2.75
1.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.75
1.00
1.50
1.50
4.00
vs Similar (7)
2.14
2.00
1.67
2.00
2.50
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
3.16
0.95
3.22
0.89
3.10
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.1%
0-3
9.7%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
9.3%
1-1
8.5%
1-3
7.5%
0-4
5.8%
0-0
4.9%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
9.3%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
1
2.4%
8.5%
9.3%
7.5%
4.5%
2
1.2%
3.0%
3.6%
2.9%
1.7%
3
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Sumqayıt is 0.72 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 2.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Sumqayıt is 1.67 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 2.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Sumqayıt is 0.03 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.71
0.57
0.57
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.12
0.25
0.12
1.12
0.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.29
0.29
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.26
1.44
0.33
0.70
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.93
0.14
0.86
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.03
1.29
0.93
2.06
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
0.67
1.67
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (19)
2.11
0.68
1.78
0.56
2.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away win
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira50%
Yassine Benzia18%
Abdellah Zoubir18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Redon Xhixha14%
Matheus Silva12%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Toral Bayramov9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Júlio Romão56%
Kevin Medina43%
Marko Vešović33%
Redon Xhixha29%
Juninho Vieira20%
Patrick Andrade20%
Elvin Cafarquliyev20%
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Janković18%
Matheus Silva12%
Bahlul Mustafazada11%
Andrey Lunev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toral Bayramov18%
Marko Vešović17%
Hamidou Keyta14%
Bədavi Huseynov11%
Juninho Vieira10%
Patrick Andrade10%
Elvin Cafarquliyev10%
Yassine Benzia9%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Leandro Andrade9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira30%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir9%
Marko Janković9%
Andrey Lunev0%
Yassine Benzia0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Redon Xhixha0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Hamidou Keyta0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Júlio Romão0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sumqayıt's squad is €15m less valuable than Qarabag's (€9m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's attack is €4m less valuable than Qarabag's (€4m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sumqayıt's midfield is €1m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sumqayıt's defence is €10m less valuable than Qarabag's (€4m vs €14m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
Turan
Səbail
Araz
Kapaz
Qabala