Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Sumqayit’s recent five games have produced only one win, and they lost the last match 0-1 to Qarabag, so the model’s 62% probability of an away win is anchored in the home side’s weak form and the away side’s strong away scoring record of 2.9 goals per game. The predicted outcome is an away win, and the model also expects a modest total of 2.8 goals, with the most likely scoreline 0-2 for Qarabag at 11.4%. Sumqayit averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Qarabag averages 2.9 scored and 0.8 conceded on the road against weaker teams. The suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards at 83.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.2%, Over 1.5 at 78.5% (miss), and Under 11.5 corners at 70.9%. The model gives a 15% chance of a home win, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 62% chance of an away win.

After a rough run of four straight defeats, Sumqayit’s home form was still a low-scoring affair, but the away side Qarabag, riding a five-match winning streak, kept their momentum. The match finished 0-1, an outcome that matched the model’s favourite pick of an away win, which had a 62% probability. The model’s selection was therefore correct. The only other suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals with a 78.5% chance, missed as the game produced a single goal. All figures are taken directly from the model’s data, and no other selections were mentioned.