Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Sumqayit’s recent five matches, all losses save a single win, underline a fragile home form, while Qarabag’s five-game streak of four wins and one loss shows a sharp away edge. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, giving it a 65% chance against Sumqayit’s 12% home win probability and a 23% draw probability. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high scoring game, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 0-2, a 13.4% chance that Qarabag will finish two-goal winners. Sumqayit averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded at home against stronger opponents, whereas Qarabag averages 1.9 goals scored and only 0.3 conceded on the road against weaker sides. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 74.8% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.0%. The match outcome probabilities are 12% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 65% for an away win.

The model’s prediction proved spot on as Qarabag secured a 0-2 away victory, extending their winning streak after a recent 1-0 triumph. Sumqayit, still rattled by four consecutive defeats, could not overturn the odds. The favourite, “Away win,” carried a 65% probability and the outcome matched the model’s call. The suggested selections also performed: “Over 1.5” hit with a 74.8% chance, and “Under 3.5” hit with 73.0%. The most likely scoreline of 0-2, at 26% probability, materialised, confirming the model’s overall accuracy for this fixture.