Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Sumqayit’s recent home form has been a nightmare, with four straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Qarabag. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning it a 66% probability. Qarabag’s away form is the opposite story: five matches, four wins, one loss, and a 1-0 victory over Sumqayit, giving them a 2.57 average goals scored and only 0.29 conceded against weaker opponents. The expected total goals is 3.1, but the most likely total is 2, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, a 10.9% probability. Home scoring is low at 0.83 and conceding high at 2.67; away scoring is high at 2.57 and conceding low at 0.29. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5, with an 82.5% probability. Home win 13%, draw 21%, away win 66%. The only selection offered is Over 1.5, with its 82.5% probability.

The match saw Sumqayit’s winless run continue as they fell 2-4 at home, while Qarabag’s winning streak extended with a comfortable away victory. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct, matching the actual result. The prediction of 2-4 also aligned with the most likely scoreline of 1-2, though the final was a higher-scoring affair. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 82.5% probability. Probabilities for the outcome were 13% home win, 21% draw, and 66% away win, and the expected total of 3.1 goals was surpassed. All suggested picks settled as indicated, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.