Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026

Time: 16:15

Final 0-1

Sumqayıt

14%

19%

67%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Qarabag

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 13 Player market rates 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Sumqayit’s recent form has been shaky, with three straight losses and a 1-3 defeat to Neftchi Baku, while Qarabag, after a loss to Twente, has returned to winning ways with three consecutive victories. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 67% chance to Qarabag triumphing. Home win sits at 14%, and a draw is 19%. The expected total goals hover at 3.5, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-2, giving Qarabag a 9.5% chance of that exact result. Sumqayit averages 1.43 goals scored and 2.86 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Qarabag averages 1.91 scored and 1.09 conceded on the road against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Under 7.5 at 97.3%, Away +2 handicap at 94.9% with a 1% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5% with a 6% edge, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 93.7%, and Under 6.5 at 93.5% with a 2% edge.

Results analysis

The win extends Sumqayit’s losing streak, while Qarabag’s recent form of WLWWW keeps them on a high trajectory. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the model’s prediction of an away win, and the pre-match favourite, Away win, was correct with a 67% probability. The model’s selections performed strongly: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Under 7.5 at 97.3%, Away +2 handicap at 94.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 93.7%, and Under 6.5 at 93.5%. All picks settled in favour of the model’s predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✗ Miss

13.9%

Avg Implied 12.5% · @ 7.26

Edge

+1.4%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

8.40

1xBet

7.70

Betfair

7.50

Bet365

7.50

William Hil

7.50

Draw✗ Miss

19.2%

Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.64

Edge

-0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Superbet

5.00

Betano

4.80

Pinnacle

4.71

Qarabag win✓ Hit

67.0%

Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.33

Edge

-1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

1.36

Bet365

1.36

William Hil

1.35

Betano

1.35

1xBet

1.33

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

2.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.30	1.57	1.31	1.85	1.29	1.35
vs Stronger (12)	1.17	2.50	1.43	2.86	0.80	2.00
vs Similar (17)	1.29	1.00	1.17	0.67	1.36	1.18
vs Weaker (1)	3.00	0.00	-	-	3.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	27% (-5pp vs league)

This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.7

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.97	1.17	2.43	1.21	1.56	1.12
vs Stronger (2)	1.50	4.50	1.00	6.00	2.00	3.00
vs Similar (10)	1.00	1.10	1.33	1.33	0.50	0.75
vs Weaker (18)	2.56	0.83	3.57	0.43	1.91	1.09
Clean sheet %	37% (+5pp vs league)

This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

87.2%

@ 1.15+7.6%

Under 1.5

12.8%

@ 4.49-7.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.17

Bet365

1.17

Betfair

1.17

1xBet

1.15

Marathonbet

1.15

Under

Betfair

5.00

Unibet

4.60

10Bet

4.50

Bet365

4.50

Marathonbet

4.30

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

67.9%

@ 1.54+8.1%

Under 2.5

32.1%

@ 2.28-8.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.59

Betfair

1.57

10Bet

1.55

1xBet

1.54

Marathonbet

1.54

Under

Unibet

2.38

Bet365

2.38

10Bet

2.35

Superbet

2.27

Betano

2.25

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

46.3%

@ 2.34+6.9%

Under 3.5

53.7%

@ 1.52-6.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.55

Pinnacle

2.47

1xBet

2.38

Marathonbet

2.38

Superbet

2.35

Under

Bet365

1.57

Unibet

1.56

10Bet

1.55

Betano

1.52

Superbet

1.50

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

60.4%

@ 1.83+10.1%

39.6%

@ 1.84-10.1%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Betfair

1.87

Superbet

1.87

Bet365

1.83

William Hil

1.83

Marathonbet

1.82

Betfair

1.87

Superbet

1.85

William Hil

1.85

10Bet

1.85

1xBet

1.85

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-2

9.5%@ 7.56+3.9%

0-2

9.0%@ 6.43+2.4%

1-1

8.6%@ 8.41+3.5%

1-3

7.8%@ 9.70+3.4%

0-3

7.3%@ 8.00+2.0%

0-1 ✓

6.6%@ 7.08+0.6%

2-2

5.0%@ 16.75+2.5%

1-4

4.7%@ 15.76+2.0%

Sumqayıt goals ↓

	Qarabag goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	6.6%	9.0%	7.3%	4.5%
1	2.4%	8.6%	9.5%	7.8%	4.7%
2	1.7%	4.1%	5.0%	4.1%	2.5%
3	0.6%	1.5%	1.8%	1.4%	0.9%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Sabah FA

2.36

Qarabag

2.09

Neftchi Baku

1.79

Turan

1.79

Zira

1.61

Araz

1.39

Sumqayıt

1.19

Şamaxı FK

1.15

Safa Baku

1.09

Imisli FK

1.06

Qabala

0.88

Kapaz

0.82

Sumqayıt is 0.90 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 2.09).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Sabah FA

2.27

Qarabag

2.15

Neftchi Baku

1.73

Araz

1.33

Turan

1.33

Sumqayıt

1.31

Zira

1.30

Safa Baku

1.02

Qabala

1.00

Şamaxı FK

0.94

Kapaz

0.76

Imisli FK

0.72

Sumqayıt is 0.84 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 2.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Sabah FA

0.76

Qarabag

0.82

Turan

0.82

Neftchi Baku

0.97

Zira

1.09

Şamaxı FK

1.21

Imisli FK

1.25

Qabala

1.44

Sumqayıt

1.53

Safa Baku

1.57

Araz

1.76

Kapaz

1.85

Sumqayıt is 0.71 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Sumqayıt or Draw✗ Miss

33.0%

Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.92

Edge

+1.6%

14%

19%

67%

covers Sumqayıt + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

3.10

Betfair

3.10

10Bet

3.10

SBO

2.92

William Hil

2.90

Sumqayıt or Qarabag✓ Hit

80.8%

Avg Implied 81.2% · @ 1.13

Edge

-0.4%

14%

19%

67%

covers Sumqayıt + Qarabag

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.18

Betano

1.15

Bet365

1.14

Betfair

1.13

Superbet

1.12

Draw or Qarabag✓ Hit

86.1%

Avg Implied 87.3% · @ 1.05

Edge

-1.2%

14%

19%

67%

covers Draw + Qarabag

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.09

William Hil

1.08

Unibet

1.06

Betfair

1.06

Superbet

1.06

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Sumqayıt over/under 0.5Actual: Under

Over

65.3%

@ 1.68+10.2%

Under

34.7%

@ 2.06-10.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.73

Superbet

1.68

1xBet

1.68

Betano

1.67

Betfair

1.67

Under

Betfair

2.10

Bet365

2.10

Betano

2.07

Pinnacle

2.05

Superbet

2.05

Sumqayıt over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

28.5%

@ 4.30+7.2%

Under

71.5%

@ 1.17-7.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

4.50

1xBet

4.40

Marathonbet

4.40

Bet365

4.33

10Bet

4.20

Under

Bet365

1.20

10Bet

1.17

Betfair

1.17

Marathonbet

1.16

Superbet

1.16

Sumqayıt over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

9.1%

@ 10.00-0.2%

Under

90.9%

@ 1.03+0.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

10.00

Bet365

10.00

Under

Bet365

1.03

Sumqayıt over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

2.3%

@ 21.00-97.7%

Under

97.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

21.00

Under

No market prices yet.

Qarabag over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

91.3%

@ 1.06+3.2%

Under

8.7%

@ 7.83-3.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.07

Betfair

1.06

1xBet

1.05

Under

Betfair

8.00

1xBet

8.00

Bet365

7.50

Qarabag over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

70.0%

@ 1.39+3.8%

Under

30.0%

@ 2.72-3.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.42

Marathonbet

1.41

Bet365

1.40

Superbet

1.37

Betfair

1.36

Under

Betfair

2.88

Bet365

2.75

10Bet

2.75

Superbet

2.67

1xBet

2.65

Qarabag over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

44.0%

@ 2.24+2.8%

Under

56.0%

@ 1.57-2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.35

Pinnacle

2.35

Betfair

2.25

Marathonbet

2.24

Bet365

2.20

Under

Betano

1.62

Bet365

1.62

Superbet

1.58

Betfair

1.57

10Bet

1.57

Qarabag over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

22.9%

@ 4.10+0.5%

Under

77.1%

@ 1.19-0.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

4.50

1xBet

4.10

Bet365

4.00

Superbet

3.80

Under

Bet365

1.22

1xBet

1.19

Superbet

1.18

Betfair

1.17

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Sumqayıt, so a minus line means Sumqayıt give that many goals of a start and Qarabag receive them. At -1, Sumqayıt must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sumqayıt win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Sumqayıt)Actual: Qarabag

Sumqayıt -2

1.4%

@ 51.00-0.5%

Draw -2

3.7%

@ 23.00-0.5%

Qarabag +2

94.9%

@ 1.02+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

51.00

Draw

Bet365

23.00

Away

Bet365

1.02

Handicap -1 (Sumqayıt)Actual: Qarabag

Sumqayıt -1

5.1%

@ 19.00+0.2%

Draw -1

8.8%

@ 11.00+0.3%

Qarabag +1

86.1%

@ 1.08-0.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

19.00

Draw

Bet365

11.00

Away

Bet365

1.08

Handicap +1 (Sumqayıt)Actual: Draw

Sumqayıt +1

33.0%

@ 3.01+3.5%

Draw +1

21.2%

@ 3.69-2.9%

Qarabag -1

45.7%

@ 1.92-0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

10Bet

3.10

Betfair

3.10

Bet365

3.00

Marathonbet

2.83

Draw

Bet365

4.00

Betfair

3.60

10Bet

3.60

Marathonbet

3.55

Away

Marathonbet

1.95

Bet365

1.91

10Bet

1.91

Betfair

1.91

Handicap +2 (Sumqayıt)Actual: Sumqayıt

Sumqayıt +2

54.3%

@ 1.76+3.4%

Draw +2

19.7%

@ 4.13-1.9%

Qarabag -2

26.0%

@ 3.26-1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.74

Betfair

1.73

Draw

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

4.05

Betfair

4.00

Away

Betfair

3.40

Bet365

3.25

Marathonbet

3.14

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.40	0.73	0.38	0.85	0.41	0.65
vs Stronger (12)	0.25	1.25	0.29	1.43	0.20	1.00
vs Similar (17)	0.41	0.41	0.50	0.17	0.36	0.55
vs Weaker (1)	2.00	0.00	-	-	2.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	47% (+15pp vs league)

This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.8

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.77	0.60	0.93	0.71	0.62	0.50
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	3.50	0.00	5.00	0.00	2.00
vs Similar (10)	0.20	0.40	0.33	0.50	0.00	0.25
vs Weaker (18)	1.17	0.39	1.57	0.29	0.91	0.45
Clean sheet %	60% (+29pp vs league)

This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

76.3%

@ 1.26+3.5%

Under 0.5

23.7%

@ 3.38-3.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.28

Marathonbet

1.28

10Bet

1.28

William Hil

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Under

Bet365

3.75

Betfair

3.50

William Hil

3.50

Superbet

3.40

10Bet

3.20

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

44.0%

@ 2.25+3.1%

Under 1.5

56.0%

@ 1.56-3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.36

10Bet

2.30

Marathonbet

2.29

1xBet

2.29

Betfair

2.25

Under

Bet365

1.62

William Hil

1.60

Superbet

1.58

Betfair

1.57

Pinnacle

1.55

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

17.4%

@ 4.84-1.5%

Under 2.5

82.6%

@ 1.13+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.05

Marathonbet

5.05

William Hil

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Bet365

4.50

Under

Bet365

1.17

William Hil

1.15

Betfair

1.14

Superbet

1.13

1xBet

1.10

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

33.3%

@ 2.86+1.2%

Under

66.7%

@ 1.35-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.92

Betano

2.87

Superbet

2.85

1xBet

2.80

Under

1xBet

1.38

Betano

1.36

Superbet

1.33

Marathonbet

1.32

Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

6.3%

Under

93.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.8%

Under

99.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

66.7%

@ 1.46+3.5%

Under

33.3%

@ 2.52-3.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.50

Pinnacle

1.48

1xBet

1.45

Superbet

1.42

Under

Pinnacle

2.55

Superbet

2.55

1xBet

2.55

Betano

2.42

Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

26.3%

@ 3.19-2.4%

Under

73.7%

@ 1.28+2.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.28

1xBet

3.10

Under

1xBet

1.31

Marathonbet

1.26

Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

5.5%

@ 8.30-5.5%

Under

94.5%

@ 1.03+5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

8.30

Under

1xBet

1.03

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.2

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.90	0.83	0.92	1.00	0.88	0.71
vs Stronger (12)	0.92	1.25	1.14	1.43	0.60	1.00
vs Similar (17)	0.88	0.59	0.67	0.50	1.00	0.64
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	0.00	-	-	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	37% (+5pp vs league)

This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.6

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.20	0.57	1.50	0.50	0.94	0.62
vs Stronger (2)	1.50	1.00	1.00	1.00	2.00	1.00
vs Similar (10)	0.80	0.70	1.00	0.83	0.50	0.50
vs Weaker (18)	1.39	0.44	2.00	0.14	1.00	0.64
Clean sheet %	63% (+32pp vs league)

This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

82.1%

@ 1.15+2.4%

Under 0.5

17.9%

@ 4.53-2.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.20

Bet365

1.17

Marathonbet

1.13

Superbet

1.13

1xBet

1.13

Under

Bet365

5.00

1xBet

4.55

Marathonbet

4.55

Superbet

4.35

William Hil

4.20

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

51.8%

@ 1.76-0.6%

Under 1.5

48.2%

@ 1.94+0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.85

Bet365

1.80

Superbet

1.78

Marathonbet

1.77

1xBet

1.77

Under

10Bet

2.10

Betano

1.98

Superbet

1.92

1xBet

1.92

Marathonbet

1.92

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

25.5%

@ 3.42-1.3%

Under 2.5

74.5%

@ 1.25+1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

3.80

Bet365

3.50

1xBet

3.28

Marathonbet

3.28

Superbet

3.25

Under

Bet365

1.28

Marathonbet

1.25

1xBet

1.25

Superbet

1.25

William Hil

1.22

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

37.8%

@ 2.40-0.4%

Under

62.2%

@ 1.48+0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.42

Marathonbet

2.41

1xBet

2.36

Under

1xBet

1.52

Superbet

1.47

Marathonbet

1.46

Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

9.4%

@ 8.60-1.2%

Under

90.6%

@ 1.02+1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

8.60

1xBet

8.60

Under

1xBet

1.03

Marathonbet

1.02

Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.1%

Under

97.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

74.0%

@ 1.29+2.1%

Under

26.0%

@ 3.30-2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.29

Under

1xBet

3.30

Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

35.3%

@ 2.37-3.3%

Under

64.7%

@ 1.49+3.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.40

1xBet

2.36

Marathonbet

2.36

Under

1xBet

1.52

Superbet

1.48

Marathonbet

1.48

Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

15.9%

@ 5.40-1.1%

Under

84.1%

@ 1.10+1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.40

Under

1xBet

1.10

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals	99.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	97.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	97.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	97.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	94.9%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+0.9%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	94.5%	1.03	1xBet 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	93.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	93.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	1xBet 1.02	-	-	-	+2.4%	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals	91.3%	1.06	Bet365 1.07	Betfair 1.06	1xBet 1.05	-	-	+3.2%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	90.9%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+0.2%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	90.6%	1.02	1xBet 1.03	Marathonbet 1.02	-	-	-	+1.2%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	87.2%	1.15	10Bet 1.17	Bet365 1.17	Betfair 1.17	1xBet 1.15	Marathonbet 1.15	+7.6%	✗ Miss
Draw or Away	86.1%	1.05	Betano 1.09	William Hil 1.08	Unibet 1.06	Betfair 1.06	Superbet 1.06	-1.2%	✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap	86.1%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	-0.5%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	85.8%	1.05	Bet365 1.08	Betfair 1.06	Superbet 1.05	1xBet 1.03	Marathonbet 1.03	-1.5%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	84.1%	1.10	1xBet 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.1%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	82.6%	1.13	Bet365 1.17	William Hil 1.15	Betfair 1.14	Superbet 1.13	1xBet 1.10	+1.5%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	82.1%	1.15	William Hil 1.20	Bet365 1.17	Marathonbet 1.13	Superbet 1.13	1xBet 1.13	+2.4%	✗ Miss
Home or Away	80.8%	1.13	William Hil 1.18	Betano 1.15	Bet365 1.14	Betfair 1.13	Superbet 1.12	-0.4%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	77.1%	1.19	Bet365 1.22	1xBet 1.19	Superbet 1.18	Betfair 1.17	-	-0.5%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals	76.3%	1.26	1xBet 1.28	Marathonbet 1.28	10Bet 1.28	William Hil 1.25	Bet365 1.25	+3.5%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	74.5%	1.25	Bet365 1.28	Marathonbet 1.25	1xBet 1.25	Superbet 1.25	William Hil 1.22	+1.3%	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals	74.0%	1.29	1xBet 1.29	-	-	-	-	+2.1%	✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals	73.7%	1.28	1xBet 1.31	Marathonbet 1.26	-	-	-	+2.4%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	72.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.22	10Bet 1.22	Betano 1.22	Betfair 1.20	Superbet 1.17	-4.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals	71.5%	1.17	Bet365 1.20	10Bet 1.17	Betfair 1.17	Marathonbet 1.16	Superbet 1.16	-7.2%	✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag · 2025/26

Anytime goalscorer

Matches in which the player scored

Camilo Durán40%

Leandro Andrade36%

Marko Janković18%

Abdellah Zoubir17%

Elvin Jafarguliyev17%

Musa Qurbanlı12%

Oleksiy Kashchuk11%

Bahlul Mustafazada9%

Matheus Silva8%

Kevin Medina8%

Emmanuel Addai8%

Toral Bayramov0%

Kady Borges0%

Joni Montiel0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Pedro Bicalho0%

Dani Bolt0%

Nariman Akhundzade0%

To be booked (yellow)

Matches in which the player was booked

Matheus Silva33%

Kevin Medina25%

Marko Janković18%

Pedro Bicalho17%

Nariman Akhundzade12%

Toral Bayramov11%

Camilo Durán10%

Abdellah Zoubir0%

Kady Borges0%

Joni Montiel0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Bahlul Mustafazada0%

Elvin Jafarguliyev0%

Oleksiy Kashchuk0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Musa Qurbanlı0%

Leandro Andrade0%

Dani Bolt0%

Emmanuel Addai0%

Anytime assist

Matches in which the player assisted

Nariman Akhundzade25%

Joni Montiel20%

Marko Janković18%

Leandro Andrade18%

Abdellah Zoubir17%

Kady Borges12%

Camilo Durán10%

Bahlul Mustafazada9%

Matheus Silva8%

Elvin Jafarguliyev8%

Toral Bayramov0%

Kevin Medina0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Oleksiy Kashchuk0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Musa Qurbanlı0%

Pedro Bicalho0%

Dani Bolt0%

Emmanuel Addai0%

Over 2.5 shots

Matches with 3+ shots taken

Camilo Durán20%

Abdellah Zoubir17%

Emmanuel Addai8%

Toral Bayramov0%

Kady Borges0%

Matheus Silva0%

Marko Janković0%

Kevin Medina0%

Joni Montiel0%

Chris Kouakou0%

Bahlul Mustafazada0%

Elvin Jafarguliyev0%

Oleksiy Kashchuk0%

Mateusz Kochalski0%

Musa Qurbanlı0%

Leandro Andrade0%

Pedro Bicalho0%

Dani Bolt0%

Nariman Akhundzade0%

Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (25)

€25m

SF (24)

€17m

NB (23)

€13m

ZIR (23)

€12m

TUR (23)

€10m

SUM (22)

€9m

IF (18)

€6m

ARA (19)

€6m

KAP (24)

€5m

QAB (18)

€5m

SB (15)

€4m

ŞF (15)

€4m

Sumqayıt's squad is €15m less valuable than Qarabag's (€9m vs €25m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (9)

€8m

ZIR (10)

€6m

SF (7)

€5m

NB (7)

€4m

SUM (7)

€4m

TUR (7)

€3m

IF (7)

€3m

ARA (7)

€3m

SB (5)

€1m

QAB (5)

€1m

ŞF (6)

€1m

KAP (8)

€1m

Sumqayıt's attack is €4m less valuable than Qarabag's (€4m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SF (7)

€5m

QAR (3)

€3m

NB (6)

€3m

SUM (4)

€2m

TUR (4)

€2m

ARA (5)

€2m

KAP (6)

€2m

ŞF (3)

€1m

ZIR (3)

€1m

QAB (3)

€1m

IF (2)

€1m

SB (2)

€0m

Sumqayıt's midfield is €1m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

QAR (13)

€14m

SF (10)

€7m

NB (10)

€6m

ZIR (10)

€6m

TUR (12)

€5m

SUM (11)

€4m

IF (9)

€3m

QAB (10)

€3m

KAP (10)

€3m

SB (8)

€3m

ARA (7)

€2m

ŞF (6)

€2m

Sumqayıt's defence is €10m less valuable than Qarabag's (€4m vs €14m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

SUM wins

Draws

QAR wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Qarabag · H/A from SUM

Date	H/A	Game	Score
22/05/26	H	SUM Vs Qarabag	3-4
21/11/25	H	SUM Vs Qarabag	2-4
22/08/25	A	Qarabag Vs SUM	0-1
04/05/25	A	Qarabag Vs SUM	2-0
03/03/25	H	SUM Vs Qarabag	0-2
16/12/24	A	Qarabag Vs SUM	5-0
06/10/24	H	SUM Vs Qarabag	0-1
28/04/24	H	SUM Vs Qarabag	1-0

Sumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/08/26	H	SUM Vs Neftchi Baku	1-3
22/05/26	H	SUM Vs Qarabag	3-4
17/05/26	A	Zira Vs SUM	2-1
09/05/26	H	SUM Vs Araz	2-1
02/05/26	A	Kapaz Vs SUM	2-1
25/04/26	A	Imisli FK Vs SUM	0-2
19/04/26	H	SUM Vs Qabala	1-0
12/04/26	A	Turan Vs SUM	2-1
05/04/26	H	SUM Vs Neftchi Baku	1-3
19/03/26	A	Sabah FA Vs SUM	3-1

Qarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
27/08/26	H	QAR Vs Twente	1-2
20/08/26	A	Twente Vs QAR	0-1
17/08/26	H	QAR Vs Şamaxı FK	3-1
13/08/26	H	QAR Vs Dynamo Kyiv	2-0
06/08/26	A	Dynamo Kyiv Vs QAR	1-0
30/07/26	A	CSKA Sofia Vs QAR	0-0
23/07/26	H	QAR Vs CSKA Sofia	0-0
16/07/26	A	Vestri Vs QAR	0-3
22/05/26	A	Sumqayıt Vs QAR	3-4
16/05/26	H	QAR Vs Imisli FK	3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWLLL	1.12
Home	LWWLL	1.04
Away	LLWLL	1.20

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	28%	36%
AVG goals	2.88	3.16	2.60
Over 1.5 %	80%	76%	84%
Over 2.5 %	58%	64%	52%
Over 3.5 %	32%	44%	20%
Scored	1.30	1.36	1.24
Conceded	1.58	1.80	1.36
BTTS	52%	52%	52%
Clean Sheet	22%	24%	20%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Qarabag

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa

Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWWL	1.74
Home	WDWWL	2.04
Away	WWDLW	1.42

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	52%	62%	42%
AVG goals	3.16	3.31	3.00
Over 1.5 %	78%	81%	75%
Over 2.5 %	60%	58%	62%
Over 3.5 %	36%	42%	29%
Scored	1.88	2.23	1.50
Conceded	1.28	1.08	1.50
BTTS	52%	42%	62%
Clean Sheet	36%	50%	21%
Corners	10.46	9.00	12.17
Cards	3.60	3.38	3.86

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Zira	3	9	100%	3.0	6	1	+5	2.3	67%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	6	2.0	0.3	-
2	Neftchi Baku	3	6	67%	2.0	8	2	+6	3.3	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	13	4	3	6	2.7	0.7	-
3	Qarabag	2	6	100%	3.0	4	1	+3	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	25	8	3	14	2.0	0.5	-
4	Sabah FA	2	6	100%	3.0	3	0	+3	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	17	5	5	7	1.5	0.0	-
5	Turan	3	4	33%	1.3	1	1	+0	0.7	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	3	2	5	0.3	0.3	-
6	Imisli FK	3	4	33%	1.3	2	3	-1	1.7	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	1	3	0.7	1.0	-
7	Kapaz	2	3	50%	1.5	1	2	-1	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	2	3	0.5	1.0	-
8	Safa Baku	3	3	33%	1.0	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	0	3	0.3	1.0	-
9	Şamaxı FK	3	2	0%	0.7	1	3	-2	1.3	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	2	0.3	1.0	-
10	Qabala	3	1	0%	0.3	0	2	-2	0.7	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	1	3	0.0	0.7	-
11	Araz	3	1	0%	0.3	0	6	-6	2.0	33%	33%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	2	2	0.0	2.0	-
12	Sumqayıt	2	0	0%	0.0	1	4	-3	2.5	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	9	4	2	4	0.5	2.0	-

Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches

Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sumqayıt

Qarabag

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sumqayıt

Qarabag

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sumqayıt

Qarabag

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

🎽 13. Player market rates

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt

Qarabag

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature