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Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA Result & Analysis

Date: 03/11/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
23%
28%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W13L01L01L02L11D01L24L10WA·TUR11/08H·SƏB17/08A·SAB25/08H·ARA30/08A·ŞAM14/09H·ZIR22/09A·NEF28/09H·QAR06/10H·TUR20/10A·SƏB26/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.071.001.120.791.00
vs Stronger (12)0.581.250.671.000.501.50
vs Similar (18)1.110.941.201.201.000.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W31W32W22D42W23L11D11D00DH·ST 15/08A·NEF18/08H·SUM25/08A·KAP31/08H·TUR15/09A·SƏB22/09A·QAR29/09H·ARA05/10A·ZIR20/10H·NEF27/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.331.601.331.601.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.501.291.141.571.861.00
vs Weaker (16)1.691.382.001.121.381.62
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
9.4%
0-0
8.9%
1-0 ✓
6.5%
2-1
6.0%
1-3
4.9%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
01234
08.9%11%9.4%4.9%1.9%
16.5%13%9.4%4.9%1.9%
23.9%6.0%4.7%2.5%1.0%
31.3%2.0%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.3%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Sumqayıt is 0.42 points worse than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Sumqayıt is 0.53 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Sumqayıt is 0.19 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D11D00D01L01L00D00D13L00DA·TUR11/08H·SƏB17/08A·SAB25/08H·ARA30/08A·ŞAM14/09H·ZIR22/09A·NEF28/09H·QAR06/10H·TUR20/10A·SƏB26/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.370.500.440.430.29
vs Stronger (12)0.330.330.330.330.330.33
vs Similar (18)0.560.390.600.500.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D02L11D32W13L11D10W00DH·ST 15/08A·NEF18/08H·SUM25/08A·KAP31/08H·TUR15/09A·SƏB22/09A·QAR29/09H·ARA05/10A·ZIR20/10H·NEF27/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.700.870.600.670.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.500.570.430.570.570.57
vs Weaker (16)1.000.811.250.620.751.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W02L01L00D01L11D01L11D10WA·TUR11/08H·SƏB17/08A·SAB25/08H·ARA30/08A·ŞAM14/09H·ZIR22/09A·NEF28/09H·QAR06/10H·TUR20/10A·SƏB26/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.700.500.690.360.71
vs Stronger (12)0.250.920.330.670.171.17
vs Similar (18)0.560.560.600.700.500.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W20W30W11D10W10W00D01L00DH·ST 15/08A·NEF18/08H·SUM25/08A·KAP31/08H·TUR15/09A·SƏB22/09A·QAR29/09H·ARA05/10A·ZIR20/10H·NEF27/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.630.730.730.930.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.000.710.711.001.290.43
vs Weaker (16)0.690.560.750.500.620.62
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sumqayıt's squad is €8m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€9m vs €17m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's attack is €1m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€4m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sumqayıt's midfield is €4m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€2m vs €5m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sumqayıt's defence is €3m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€4m vs €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SUM wins
0
Draws
7
SF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/24ASabah FA Vs SUM3-1
18/05/24ASabah FA Vs SUM2-0
17/03/24HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-2
25/10/23HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-0
21/10/23ASabah FA Vs SUM3-1
17/05/23HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-4
10/03/23ASabah FA Vs SUM4-0
23/12/22HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-6

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24ASəbail Vs SUM0-1
20/10/24HSUM Vs Turan2-4
06/10/24HSUM Vs Qarabag0-1
28/09/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM1-1
22/09/24HSUM Vs Zira0-2
14/09/24AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-0
30/08/24HSUM Vs Araz0-1
25/08/24ASabah FA Vs SUM3-1
17/08/24HSUM Vs Səbail2-1
11/08/24ATuran Vs SUM1-0

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/24HSF Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
20/10/24AZira Vs SF1-1
05/10/24HSF Vs Araz1-1
29/09/24AQarabag Vs SF3-2
22/09/24ASəbail Vs SF2-4
15/09/24HSF Vs Turan2-2
31/08/24AKapaz Vs SF2-3
25/08/24HSF Vs Sumqayıt3-1
18/08/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SF0-2
15/08/24HSF Vs St Patrick's Athl.0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.36
HomeWLLLL1.46
AwayLLLDW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%29%
AVG goals2.101.922.29
Over 1.5 %56%46%67%
Over 2.5 %34%35%33%
Over 3.5 %18%12%25%
Scored0.940.851.04
Conceded1.161.081.25
BTTS42%31%54%
Clean Sheet36%50%21%
Corners10.506.0015.00
Cards7.0010.004.00
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDD1.50
HomeLWDDD1.44
AwayWWWLD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%36%48%
AVG goals2.662.762.56
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.401.481.32
Conceded1.261.281.24
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
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Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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