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Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA Result & Analysis

Date: 22/12/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 1-3
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
24%
25%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W01L30W32W20W24L21W31W10W22DH·KAR18/10A·ZIR25/10A·ZAQ29/10H·ARA02/11A·QAB07/11H·QAR21/11A·ŞAM30/11A·DIF04/12H·IMI09/12A·NEF15/12
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.471.531.801.401.13
vs Stronger (13)0.922.081.172.830.711.43
vs Similar (16)1.811.061.781.111.861.00
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W22D10W31W00D30W11D20W31W21WH·ZIR19/10A·ARA25/10H·QAB03/11A·KAP09/11H·ŞAM23/11A·IMI29/11A·IMI03/12H·NEF08/12A·TUR13/12H·QAR18/12
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.901.620.881.790.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.591.061.781.001.381.12
vs Weaker (13)1.850.691.430.712.330.67
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.2%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
1-3 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
01234
06.0%7.9%8.2%5.0%2.3%
14.8%12%9.7%5.9%2.7%
23.5%6.3%5.8%3.5%1.6%
31.4%2.5%2.3%1.4%0.6%
40.4%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sumqayıt is 1.18 points worse than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 2.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sumqayıt is 0.96 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 2.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Sumqayıt is 0.77 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L20W11D00D12L00D10W00D01LH·KAR18/10A·ZIR25/10A·ZAQ29/10H·ARA02/11A·QAB07/11H·QAR21/11A·ŞAM30/11A·DIF04/12H·IMI09/12A·NEF15/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.670.600.400.60
vs Stronger (13)0.310.770.500.830.140.71
vs Similar (16)0.620.500.780.440.430.57
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W21W00D00D00D00D10W01LH·ZIR19/10A·ARA25/10H·QAB03/11A·KAP09/11H·ŞAM23/11A·IMI29/11A·IMI03/12H·NEF08/12A·TUR13/12H·QAR18/12
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.810.500.640.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.710.591.000.670.380.50
vs Weaker (13)0.770.230.570.291.000.17
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D10W21W20W12L21W21W10W21WH·KAR18/10A·ZIR25/10A·ZAQ29/10H·ARA02/11A·QAB07/11H·QAR21/11A·ŞAM30/11A·DIF04/12H·IMI09/12A·NEF15/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.870.871.201.000.53
vs Stronger (13)0.621.310.672.000.570.71
vs Similar (16)1.190.561.000.671.430.43
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W22D00D10W00D30W11D20W21W20WH·ZIR19/10A·ARA25/10H·QAB03/11A·KAP09/11H·ŞAM23/11A·IMI29/11A·IMI03/12H·NEF08/12A·TUR13/12H·QAR18/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.470.810.381.140.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.470.780.331.000.62
vs Weaker (13)1.080.460.860.431.330.50
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.3%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt's squad is €8m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€9m vs €17m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt's attack is €1m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€4m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's midfield is €4m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€2m vs €5m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's defence is €3m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€4m vs €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SUM wins
4
Draws
3
SF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Sabah FA · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25ASabah FA Vs SUM1-1
29/03/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA3-3
27/02/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-4
05/02/25ASabah FA Vs SUM0-0
25/01/25ASabah FA Vs SUM0-0
03/11/24HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-0
25/08/24ASabah FA Vs SUM3-1
18/05/24ASabah FA Vs SUM2-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/12/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM2-2
09/12/25HSUM Vs Imisli FK1-0
04/12/25ADifai Ağsu Vs SUM1-3
30/11/25AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-2
21/11/25HSUM Vs Qarabag2-4
07/11/25AQabala Vs SUM0-2
02/11/25HSUM Vs Araz3-2
29/10/25AZaqatala Vs SUM0-3
25/10/25AZira Vs SUM1-0
18/10/25HSUM Vs Karvan4-1

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/12/25HSF Vs Qarabag2-1
13/12/25ATuran Vs SF1-3
08/12/25HSF Vs Neftchi Baku2-0
03/12/25AImisli FK Vs SF1-1
29/11/25AImisli FK Vs SF0-3
23/11/25HSF Vs Şamaxı FK0-0
09/11/25AKapaz Vs SF1-3
03/11/25HSF Vs Qabala1-0
25/10/25AAraz Vs SF2-2
19/10/25HSF Vs Zira3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.18
HomeLWWLW1.16
AwayWWWWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%32%32%
AVG goals2.522.882.16
Over 1.5 %68%80%56%
Over 2.5 %44%52%36%
Over 3.5 %26%28%24%
Scored1.101.240.96
Conceded1.421.641.20
BTTS38%40%36%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.66
HomeWWDWW1.75
AwayDWWDW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.482.212.73
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %42%33%50%
Over 3.5 %28%21%35%
Scored1.501.381.62
Conceded0.980.831.12
BTTS58%50%65%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners---
Cards5.002.008.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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