Sumqayıt vs Safa Baku Prediction & Stats

The model picks a home win for Sumqayit, with a 51% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Safa Baku win. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. Sumqayit, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Safa Baku, on the road, averages 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 5.5 at 93.4%, Home +2 handicap at 90.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 90.1% and Under 4.5 at 84.6%. Sumqayit’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while Safa Baku has just returned from a loss, setting the stage for a tightly contested match that the model expects to end 1-1.