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Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK Result & Analysis

Date: 13/03/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 0-1
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Vs
31%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win✓ Hit
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L12L20W00D23L01L00D03L02L11DH·SAB22/12A·TUR25/01A·KAR30/01H·ZIR04/02H·ZIR08/02A·ARA15/02H·QAB20/02A·KAP27/02A·ZIR03/03A·KAR07/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.301.311.541.291.12
vs Stronger (11)0.821.821.002.400.671.33
vs Similar (18)1.501.061.501.001.501.10
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L04L20W21W12L00D00D22D13L00DA·ARA21/12H·QAB24/01A·KAP31/01H·QAR05/02H·QAR10/02H·TUR16/02A·IMI22/02H·NEF28/02A·QAR04/03H·IMI08/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.171.001.310.931.00
vs Stronger (12)1.001.501.331.500.671.50
vs Similar (18)0.940.940.801.201.120.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
Under 2.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1 ✓
10.4%
0-0
10.4%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.6%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
01234
010%10%7.6%3.2%1.0%
18.8%14%8.4%3.6%1.2%
25.6%7.2%4.6%2.0%0.6%
32.1%2.7%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sumqayıt is 0.04 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sumqayıt is 0.37 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Sumqayıt is 0.32 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.21).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L20W00D12L01L00D03L01L00DH·SAB22/12A·TUR25/01A·KAR30/01H·ZIR04/02H·ZIR08/02A·ARA15/02H·QAB20/02A·KAP27/02A·ZIR03/03A·KAR07/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.540.690.410.65
vs Stronger (11)0.270.820.401.000.170.67
vs Similar (18)0.500.610.620.500.400.70
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W20W11D00D00D00D11D00DA·ARA21/12H·QAB24/01A·KAP31/01H·QAR05/02H·QAR10/02H·TUR16/02A·IMI22/02H·NEF28/02A·QAR04/03H·IMI08/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.370.440.440.570.29
vs Stronger (12)0.580.500.500.500.670.50
vs Similar (18)0.440.280.400.400.500.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D00D00D11D00D00D00D01L11DH·SAB22/12A·TUR25/01A·KAR30/01H·ZIR04/02H·ZIR08/02A·ARA15/02H·QAB20/02A·KAP27/02A·ZIR03/03A·KAR07/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.630.770.850.880.47
vs Stronger (11)0.551.000.601.400.500.67
vs Similar (18)1.000.440.880.501.100.40
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L00D01L01L00D00D22D02L00DA·ARA21/12H·QAB24/01A·KAP31/01H·QAR05/02H·QAR10/02H·TUR16/02A·IMI22/02H·NEF28/02A·QAR04/03H·IMI08/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.800.560.880.360.71
vs Stronger (12)0.421.000.831.000.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.500.670.400.800.620.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt's squad is €5m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€9m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt's attack is €3m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€4m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Şamaxı FK have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Sumqayıt's defence is €2m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SUM wins
2
Draws
3
ŞF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK · H/A from SUM
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-2
29/08/25HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
12/04/25HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-2
09/02/25AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-0
24/11/24HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK2-1
14/09/24AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM1-0
16/04/23AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM0-0
12/02/23HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26AKarvan Vs SUM1-1
03/03/26AZira Vs SUM2-0
27/02/26AKapaz Vs SUM3-0
20/02/26HSUM Vs Qabala0-0
15/02/26AAraz Vs SUM1-0
08/02/26HSUM Vs Zira2-3
04/02/26HSUM Vs Zira0-0
30/01/26AKarvan Vs SUM0-2
25/01/26ATuran Vs SUM2-1
22/12/25HSUM Vs Sabah FA1-3

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26HŞF Vs Imisli FK0-0
04/03/26AQarabag Vs ŞF3-1
28/02/26HŞF Vs Neftchi Baku2-2
22/02/26AImisli FK Vs ŞF0-0
16/02/26HŞF Vs Turan0-0
10/02/26HŞF Vs Qarabag1-2
05/02/26HŞF Vs Qarabag2-1
31/01/26AKapaz Vs ŞF0-2
24/01/26HŞF Vs Qabala0-4
21/12/25AAraz Vs ŞF2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLD1.10
HomeWLDLD1.04
AwayWLLLD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%25%31%
AVG goals2.502.832.19
Over 1.5 %72%79%65%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.081.210.96
Conceded1.421.621.23
BTTS38%42%35%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLD1.18
HomeWLDDD1.27
AwayWLWDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.222.122.33
Over 1.5 %66%58%75%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %18%15%21%
Scored1.000.961.04
Conceded1.221.151.29
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet32%31%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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