Sumqayit face Şəmşaxı FK in a match that feels almost perfectly balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 41% for Sumqayit, 29% for a draw and 30% for Şəmşaxı, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. Sumqayit, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Şəmşaxı, on the road, averages 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.9%), Under 4.5 (88.7%) and Home +2 handicap (87.3%). The recent form shows Sumqayit coming off three straight defeats, last losing 1-3 to Neftchi Baku, while Şəmşaxı ends a draw, last score 0-0 against Turan.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sumqayıt win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sumqayıt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.21
1.79
1.38
1.38
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.50
1.25
2.62
1.00
2.25
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.00
1.17
0.67
1.36
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.73
1.17
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.7%
Sumqayıt goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.4%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.6%
8.1%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.3%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sumqayıt goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Sumqayıt is 0.04 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Sumqayıt is 0.37 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Sumqayıt is 0.32 goals worse than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sumqayıt or Draw
69.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
31%
31%
covers Sumqayıt + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt or Şamaxı FK
69.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
31%
31%
covers Sumqayıt + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Şamaxı FK
61.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Şamaxı FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sumqayıt, so a minus line means Sumqayıt give that many goals of a start and Şamaxı FK receive them. At -1, Sumqayıt must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sumqayıt win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sumqayıt)
Sumqayıt -2
5.9%
Draw -2
11.5%
Şamaxı FK +2
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sumqayıt)
Sumqayıt -1
17.4%
Draw -1
21.1%
Şamaxı FK +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sumqayıt)
Sumqayıt +1
69.4%
Draw +1
18.2%
Şamaxı FK -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sumqayıt)
Sumqayıt +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.7%
Şamaxı FK -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sumqayıt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.36
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.38
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.50
0.17
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.33
0.27
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.32
0.22
0.11
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.5%
Under 0.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.4%
Under 1.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.7%
Under 2.5
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sumqayıt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.86
0.93
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.25
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.18
0.67
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.67
0.89
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.0%
Under 1.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
Under 2.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Sumqayıt's squad is €5m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Sumqayıt's attack is €3m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Sumqayıt and Şamaxı FK have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Sumqayıt's defence is €2m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€4m vs €2m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Qabala
Araz