Super Nova 2’s recent loss and Riga FS II’s four-game losing streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting 3.7 goals on average. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9% chance. The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance of victory, a 23% draw probability, and a 30% chance of an away win. Super Nova 2, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while Riga FS II, on the road against a weaker side, scores 1.54 and concedes 2.77. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.6%), Under 6.5 (91.4%), Over 1.5 (89.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.8%), Home +2 handicap (85.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (83.8%), and Under 5.5 (82.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Super Nova 2 win
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Super Nova 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.57
0.50
2.00
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
0.50
2.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.73
2.17
1.08
1.56
2.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
0.67
3.00
0.75
1.60
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
2.19
1.75
1.25
1.54
2.77
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.6%
Under 1.5
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.2%
Under 2.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.5%
Under 3.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
71.6%
No
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.2%
3-2
4.9%
1-0
4.2%
Super Nova 2 goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
3.1%
3.2%
1.7%
0.7%
1
4.2%
9.0%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
2
5.2%
8.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.6%
3
3.7%
6.0%
4.9%
2.7%
1.1%
4
1.9%
3.2%
2.6%
1.4%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova 2 goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Super Nova 2 is 0.21 points better than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Super Nova 2 is 0.50 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Super Nova 2 is 2.60 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 4.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Super Nova 2 or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
23%
30%
covers Super Nova 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 or Rīgas FS II
77.4%
Avg Implied -
48%
23%
30%
covers Super Nova 2 + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rīgas FS II
52.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
23%
30%
covers Draw + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 3.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5
Over
80.6%
Under
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Super Nova 2, so a minus line means Super Nova 2 give that many goals of a start and Rīgas FS II receive them. At -1, Super Nova 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Super Nova 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 -2
13.9%
Draw -2
14.6%
Rīgas FS II +2
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 -1
28.5%
Draw -1
19.4%
Rīgas FS II +1
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 +1
70.5%
Draw +1
14.9%
Rīgas FS II -1
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 +2
85.4%
Draw +2
8.8%
Rīgas FS II -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Super Nova 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.86
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
0.58
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
2.00
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.23
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Super Nova 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.14
0.71
0.00
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.17
0.50
0.89
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
1.19
1.25
0.62
0.92
1.54
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Riga FC II
Tukums II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA