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Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 15:00
Super Nova 2
Super Nova 2
Vs
36%
25%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Super Nova 2’s recent home form shows a struggle against stronger opposition, averaging only half a goal scored and conceding two each match, while Smiltene, playing away against weaker teams, has been more prolific, scoring two on average and conceding 2.67. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.3 goals, most likely 3 in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9 % chance. The favoured result is an away win, with probabilities of 39 % for Smiltene, 36 % for Super Nova 2 and 25 % for a draw. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9 %), Under 6.5 (94.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.8 %), Under 5.5 (87.9 %), Over 1.5 (85.5 %), Away over 0.5 goals (81.6 %) and Away +2 handicap (81.3 %). The match is poised for a balanced contest, with Smiltene slightly ahead in the odds.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova 2 win
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D03L20W12L11D12LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07A·JFK08/08A·MĀR15/08H·SKA23/08A·LEE29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.570.502.001.201.40
vs Stronger (5)1.001.600.502.001.331.33
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %14% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W13L22D11D10W35L21W14L24L06LA·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07H·RĪG25/07A·JFK02/08H·VAL08/08A·LEE23/08H·MET29/08
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.171.692.561.571.71
vs Stronger (6)1.172.501.503.000.501.50
vs Similar (16)2.001.562.381.501.621.62
vs Weaker (8)1.253.120.504.252.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.1%
0-1
5.1%
1-0
4.9%
2-0
4.8%
Super Nova 2 goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
01234
04.6%5.1%5.1%2.9%1.2%
14.9%11%8.4%4.7%2.0%
24.8%8.1%6.9%3.9%1.6%
32.6%4.4%3.8%2.1%0.9%
41.1%1.8%1.5%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova 2 goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Super Nova 2 is 0.29 points worse than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Super Nova 2 is 0.50 goals worse than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Super Nova 2 is 1.76 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 3.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Super Nova 2 or Draw
61.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Super Nova 2 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 or Smiltene
75.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Super Nova 2 + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Smiltene
63.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
25%
39%
covers Draw + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5
Over
80.6%
Under
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5
Over
81.7%
Under
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Super Nova 2, so a minus line means Super Nova 2 give that many goals of a start and Smiltene receive them. At -1, Super Nova 2 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Super Nova 2 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 -2
7.6%
Draw -2
11.1%
Smiltene +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 -1
18.6%
Draw -1
17.7%
Smiltene +1
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 +1
61.2%
Draw +1
18.4%
Smiltene -1
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Super Nova 2)
Super Nova 2 +2
79.6%
Draw +2
11.9%
Smiltene -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W01L10W10W11D12LA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07A·JFK08/08A·MĀR15/08H·SKA23/08A·LEE29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.860.501.001.000.80
vs Stronger (5)0.800.800.501.001.000.67
vs Similar (2)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D11D00D10W12L11D03L23L00DA·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07H·RĪG25/07A·JFK02/08H·VAL08/08A·LEE23/08H·MET29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.070.941.060.571.07
vs Stronger (6)0.501.330.501.750.500.50
vs Similar (16)1.000.881.500.620.501.12
vs Weaker (8)0.501.250.251.250.751.25
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L10W02L00D00DA·RIG19/07A·JDF25/07H·RIG31/07A·JFK08/08A·MĀR15/08H·SKA23/08A·LEE29/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.140.710.001.000.200.60
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.001.000.330.67
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SmilteneSmiltene

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D02L11D11D00D23L10W11D01L06LA·AUG18/10H·RIG25/10H·RĒZ01/11H·RĪG08/11H·RĒZ19/07H·RĪG25/07A·JFK02/08H·VAL08/08A·LEE23/08H·MET29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.100.751.501.000.64
vs Stronger (6)0.671.171.001.250.001.00
vs Similar (16)1.000.690.880.881.120.50
vs Weaker (8)0.751.880.253.001.250.75
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.9%-------
Under 6.594.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals90.7%-------
Under 5.587.9%-------
Over 1.585.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals81.7%-------
Away +2 handicap81.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.6%-------
Home +2 handicap79.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals77.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals75.8%-------
Under 4.575.6%-------
Home or Away75.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SN2 wins
0
Draws
0
SMI wins

Head-to-head

Super Nova 2 vs Smiltene · H/A from SN2
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Super Nova 2Super Nova 2

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ALeevon / PPK Vs SN22-1
23/08/26HSN2 Vs Skanste1-1
15/08/26AMārupe Vs SN22-1
08/08/26AJFK Ventspils Vs SN20-2
31/07/26HSN2 Vs Riga Mariners0-3
25/07/26AJDFS Alberts Vs SN21-1
19/07/26ARiga FC II Vs SN22-1

SmilteneSmiltene

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HSMI Vs Metta / LU0-6
23/08/26ALeevon / PPK Vs SMI4-2
08/08/26HSMI Vs Valmiera / BSS1-4
02/08/26AJFK Ventspils Vs SMI1-2
25/07/26HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II3-5
19/07/26HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA1-0
08/11/25HSMI Vs Rīgas FS II1-1
01/11/25HSMI Vs Rēzekne FA2-2
25/10/25HSMI Vs Riga Mariners1-3
18/10/25AAugšdaugava Vs SMI1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova 2
Super Nova 2
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.71
HomeLD0.50
AwayLDWLL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%0%20%
AVG goals2.572.502.60
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %57%50%60%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored1.000.501.20
Conceded1.572.001.40
BTTS71%50%80%
Clean Sheet14%0%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Smiltene
Smiltene
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.94
HomeDWLLL0.70
AwayLLWWL1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%19%35%
AVG goals3.623.893.30
Over 1.5 %92%93%91%
Over 2.5 %78%81%74%
Over 3.5 %48%56%39%
Scored1.441.331.57
Conceded2.182.561.74
BTTS60%52%70%
Clean Sheet12%7%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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