The contest between Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but leaving the draw and away win within striking distance. The odds are 38% for a Super Nova victory, 29% for a stalemate and 33% for a BFC Daugavpils triumph. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most probable total is two goals, a 27% chance. The single score the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Super Nova, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. BFC Daugavpils, on the road, averages 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Both teams have been in fine form, Super Nova coming off a 1-1 draw with Auda and BFC Daugavpils returning from a 0-1 defeat to Grobiņa.
The model’s selections include an 75.4% chance of Under 3.5, a 72.9% chance of Over 1.5, and the overall 38% chance of a home win, 29% draw and 33% away win.
Results analysis
The 1-0 victory for Super Nova extended their recent run, following a draw against Auda, while BFC Daugavpils slipped after a defeat to Grobiņa. The model’s favourite was a Home win with a 38% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals fell short, but the Under 3.5 selection hit with a 75.4% chance, whereas the Over 1.5 call missed despite a 72.9% probability. The final score matched the model’s Home win pick, confirming the accuracy of the primary prediction while highlighting the mixed performance of the secondary selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Super Nova win✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Super Nova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.88
0.55
2.09
0.77
1.69
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
2.43
0.67
2.83
0.62
2.12
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.10
0.40
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.92
0.90
1.50
0.64
2.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
2.67
0.25
2.00
0.20
3.20
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.54
1.20
1.40
0.62
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.0%
Under 2.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
Under 3.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.4%
No
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.4%
1-0 ✓
9.3%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.9%
Super Nova goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.3%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.9%
8.3%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.0%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Super Nova is 0.39 points worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (0.56 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Super Nova is 0.17 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Super Nova is 0.39 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Super Nova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.92
0.27
0.91
0.46
0.92
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.14
0.33
1.17
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.54
0.30
0.40
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.89
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.31
0.20
0.20
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Super Nova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.29
0.96
0.27
1.18
0.31
0.77
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.29
0.33
1.67
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.38
0.60
1.10
0.43
1.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.78
0.00
1.25
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.23
1.00
1.20
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Riga
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
Auda
Tukums
Spartaks Jurmala
Metta / LU