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Super Nova vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 09/11/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 3-0
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
27%
26%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova win✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-614L30W26L12L23L12L11D00D22D13LA·RĪG10/08A·FK 25/08H·RIG30/08A·MET14/09A·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.631.061.691.211.57
vs Stronger (13)1.232.621.003.001.502.17
vs Similar (17)1.060.881.110.671.001.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W03L21W41W10W22D03L21W22D21WH·BFC09/08H·SUP25/08A·MET29/08H·TUK14/09A·GRO21/09H·RĪG28/09A·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.401.641.141.561.62
vs Stronger (6)1.172.172.002.000.332.33
vs Similar (11)1.271.181.400.401.171.83
vs Weaker (13)2.081.231.671.332.431.14
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
7.6%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.4%
Super Nova goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
06.2%7.6%7.4%4.2%1.8%
15.4%12%9.4%5.4%2.3%
24.1%7.0%6.0%3.4%1.5%
31.7%3.0%2.5%1.4%0.6%
40.5%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Super Nova is 0.81 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.69).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
Super Nova is 0.42 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.64).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
Super Nova is 0.03 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W13L01L12L10W00D00D01L01LA·RĪG10/08A·FK 25/08H·RIG30/08A·MET14/09A·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.500.810.291.00
vs Stronger (13)0.461.460.431.430.501.50
vs Similar (17)0.350.470.560.330.120.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W21W00D01L01L11D22D00DH·BFC09/08H·SUP25/08A·MET29/08H·TUK14/09A·GRO21/09H·RĪG28/09A·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.790.570.750.56
vs Stronger (6)0.331.170.671.330.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.270.360.400.000.170.67
vs Weaker (13)1.380.461.170.671.570.29
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W13L11D11D02L11D00D21W12LA·RĪG10/08A·FK 25/08H·RIG30/08A·MET14/09A·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.560.880.930.57
vs Stronger (13)0.771.150.571.571.000.67
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.560.330.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W02L01L20W10W21W02L10W00D21WH·BFC09/08H·SUP25/08A·MET29/08H·TUK14/09A·GRO21/09H·RĪG28/09A·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.830.860.570.811.06
vs Stronger (6)0.831.001.330.670.331.33
vs Similar (11)1.000.821.000.401.001.17
vs Weaker (13)0.690.770.500.670.860.86
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Super Nova's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Super Nova's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Super Nova and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Super Nova's defence is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SN wins
2
Draws
5
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
25/08/25AFK Liepaja Vs SN0-3
17/06/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-3
25/04/25AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-2
11/11/23AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-0
28/08/23HSN Vs FK Liepaja0-2
09/06/23AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-1
28/04/23HSN Vs FK Liepaja2-6
11/09/22HSN Vs FK Liepaja2-2

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0
04/10/25HSN Vs FS Jelgava1-1
28/09/25ATukums Vs SN2-1
22/09/25AAuda Vs SN3-2
14/09/25AMetta / LU Vs SN2-1
30/08/25HSN Vs Riga2-6
25/08/25AFK Liepaja Vs SN0-3
10/08/25ARīgas FS Vs SN4-1

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL1-2
25/10/25HFL Vs FS Jelgava2-2
20/10/25AAuda Vs FL1-2
03/10/25ARiga Vs FL3-0
28/09/25HFL Vs Rīgas FS2-2
21/09/25AGrobiņa Vs FL0-1
14/09/25HFL Vs Tukums4-1
29/08/25AMetta / LU Vs FL1-2
25/08/25HFL Vs Super Nova0-3
09/08/25HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.38
HomeDDLDL1.64
AwayLLLDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.863.002.72
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.661.881.44
Conceded1.201.121.28
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.70
HomeWLWDD1.83
AwayWWLWW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.983.002.96
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %36%42%31%
Scored1.601.831.38
Conceded1.381.171.58
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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