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Super Nova vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
39%
27%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

In a finely balanced match, Super Nova's recent form note suggests they're coming off a win, having beaten Grobiņa 2-0, while FK Liepaja are looking to bounce back from two straight defeats. The model's pick is a home win, with a 39% chance of success, closely followed by a draw at 27% and an away win at 34%.

The expected total goals stands at 2.9, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. At home, Super Nova's scoring and conceding stats are 1.27 and 0.91 goals per game respectively against similar opponents, while away, FK Liepaja have averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.09 conceded in similar away games.

The model suggests Over 1.5 as its selection with a probability of 79.6%, and a 3% edge. Home win is the favourite, with a 39% chance, while a draw has a 27% chance and an away win 34%. The home win percentage is 39, the draw percentage is 27, and the away win percentage is 34. The model also suggests Over 1.5 with a probability of 79.6%, and a 3% edge.

Results analysis

FK Liepaja's away win has stunned Super Nova, snapping their four-match winning streak. The 1-2 scoreline has dealt a blow to Super Nova's home form, which had been looking strong with an average of 1.27 goals scored per match. However, FK Liepaja's away form has shown resilience, conceding an average of 1.1 goals per match. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's suggestion to back Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.6% and an edge of 3%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova win✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.35
Edge
+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.53
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.49
Dafabet
3.45
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.41
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Dafabet
3.50
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 1.95
Edge
-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.10
Dafabet
1.99
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L12L11D00D22D13L30W21W12L20WA·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.531.241.531.231.54
vs Stronger (13)1.312.461.252.621.402.20
vs Similar (17)1.180.821.220.561.121.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L21W22D21W03L40W13L20W13L12LA·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11A·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07A·FS 26/07A·AUS30/07A·TUK02/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.331.851.081.291.53
vs Stronger (6)1.172.172.002.000.332.33
vs Similar (12)1.501.001.830.331.171.67
vs Weaker (12)1.751.251.751.501.751.12
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
@ 1.20+2.8%
Under 1.5
20.4%
@ 3.97-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.69+0.7%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.04-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.10
SBO
2.08
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.73-0.7%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.39+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Pinnacle
2.81
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
@ 1.59+1.9%
No
40.4%
@ 2.17-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
William Hil
1.60
BetVictor
1.60
No
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
William Hil
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Superbet
2.17

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.24+5.9%
2-1
8.7%@ 10.26+4.6%
1-2 ✓
8.1%@ 7.61+2.5%
1-0
7.1%@ 10.67+3.2%
0-0
6.7%@ 11.65+3.0%
0-1
6.5%@ 7.87+1.1%
2-0
6.2%@ 16.67+3.7%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.18+2.3%
Super Nova goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
06.7%6.5%5.4%2.5%0.9%
17.1%13%8.1%3.7%1.3%
26.2%8.7%6.1%2.8%1.0%
33.1%4.4%3.0%1.4%0.5%
41.2%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Super Nova is 0.54 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Super Nova is 0.83 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Super Nova is 0.25 goals better than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W00D00D01L01L20W11D00D00DA·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.770.470.650.380.92
vs Stronger (13)0.541.230.501.120.601.40
vs Similar (17)0.350.410.440.220.250.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D22D00D02L30W01L20W12L11DA·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11A·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07A·FS 26/07A·AUS30/07A·TUK02/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.850.620.760.65
vs Stronger (6)0.331.170.671.330.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.420.830.000.330.83
vs Weaker (12)1.250.581.001.001.380.38
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L11D00D21W12L10W10W12L20WA·AUD22/09A·TUK28/09H·FS 04/10A·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.760.880.850.62
vs Stronger (13)0.771.230.751.500.800.80
vs Similar (17)0.820.410.780.330.880.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D21W01L10W12L00D01L01LA·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11A·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07A·FS 26/07A·AUS30/07A·TUK02/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.701.000.460.530.88
vs Stronger (6)0.831.001.330.670.331.33
vs Similar (12)0.920.581.000.330.830.83
vs Weaker (12)0.500.670.750.500.380.75
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%1.20
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+2.8%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Super Nova's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Super Nova's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Super Nova and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Super Nova's defence is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SN wins
1
Draws
5
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
25/08/25AFK Liepaja Vs SN0-3
17/06/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-3
25/04/25AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-2
11/11/23AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-0
28/08/23HSN Vs FK Liepaja0-2
09/06/23AFK Liepaja Vs SN2-1
28/04/23HSN Vs FK Liepaja2-6

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26HSN Vs Grobiņa2-0
06/07/26HSN Vs Ogre United1-2
01/07/26ATukums Vs SN1-2
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0
04/10/25HSN Vs FS Jelgava1-1
28/09/25ATukums Vs SN2-1
22/09/25AAuda Vs SN3-2

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/26ATukums Vs FL2-1
30/07/26AAustria Vienna Vs FL3-1
26/07/26AFS Jelgava Vs FL0-2
04/07/26ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL3-1
30/06/26HFL Vs Ogre United4-0
09/11/25ASuper Nova Vs FL3-0
02/11/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL1-2
25/10/25HFL Vs FS Jelgava2-2
20/10/25AAuda Vs FL1-2
03/10/25ARiga Vs FL3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.36
HomeDLWLW1.52
AwayLLDDW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.782.802.76
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %52%48%56%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.541.601.48
Conceded1.241.201.28
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.68
HomeLWDDW1.95
AwayLLWLL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%55%46%
AVG goals3.183.273.11
Over 1.5 %84%82%86%
Over 2.5 %70%68%71%
Over 3.5 %42%50%36%
Scored1.682.051.39
Conceded1.501.231.71
BTTS60%59%61%
Clean Sheet24%36%14%
Corners11.00-11.00
Cards4.00-4.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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