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Super Nova vs Grobiņa Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 13:00
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
60%
24%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Super Nova are favoured to win, with a 59% chance of taking the points and a 24% chance of a draw against Grobiņa, who face only a 16% chance of victory. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5% chance. Super Nova, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.1 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Grobiņa, on the road, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home +2 handicap (94.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.7%), Under 5.5 (93.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (84.9%). Super Nova’s recent form shows a draw, while Grobiņa come off a win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova win
60.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D22D13L30W21W12L20W12L00D11DA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.431.181.291.151.62
vs Stronger (13)1.312.231.292.431.332.00
vs Similar (17)1.060.821.100.501.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D00D10W31W02L22D04L16L13L10WH·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08H·BFC29/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.871.141.210.622.44
vs Stronger (8)0.503.621.002.000.204.60
vs Similar (15)1.001.531.291.290.751.75
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.000.501.000.67
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-0
11.0%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.1%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
4.6%
Super Nova goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
01234
07.1%4.4%2.4%0.7%0.2%
111%11%4.6%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.4%1.3%0.3%
37.0%6.3%2.8%0.8%0.2%
43.4%3.0%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Super Nova is 0.33 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Super Nova is 0.02 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Super Nova is 1.57 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Super Nova or Draw
84.0%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Super Nova + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova or Grobiņa
76.2%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Super Nova + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grobiņa
39.8%
Avg Implied -
60%
24%
16%
covers Draw + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Super Nova over/under 0.5
Over
85.2%
Under
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 3.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Super Nova, so a minus line means Super Nova give that many goals of a start and Grobiņa receive them. At -1, Super Nova must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Super Nova win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Super Nova)
Super Nova -2
17.7%
Draw -2
18.8%
Grobiņa +2
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Super Nova)
Super Nova -1
36.5%
Draw -1
23.6%
Grobiņa +1
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Super Nova)
Super Nova +1
84.0%
Draw +1
10.5%
Grobiņa -1
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Super Nova)
Super Nova +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.1%
Grobiņa -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W11D00D00D10W00D01LA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.470.530.381.00
vs Stronger (13)0.541.150.571.000.501.33
vs Similar (17)0.350.410.400.200.290.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D10W20W00D02L00D04L01L00DH·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08H·BFC29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.500.860.310.94
vs Stronger (8)0.122.000.331.670.002.20
vs Similar (15)0.470.670.571.000.380.38
vs Weaker (7)0.570.140.500.000.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W12L10W10W12L20W02L00D10WA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.710.760.770.62
vs Stronger (13)0.771.080.711.430.830.67
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.700.300.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D00D11D02L20W04L12L12L10WH·AUD09/11H·JDF20/11A·JDF23/11H·TUK05/07A·SUP20/07H·OGR27/07A·RIG02/08A·RĪG10/08A·FK 21/08H·BFC29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.640.360.311.50
vs Stronger (8)0.381.620.670.330.202.40
vs Similar (15)0.530.870.710.290.381.38
vs Weaker (7)0.430.430.500.500.330.33
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.7%-------
Under 6.597.5%-------
Home +2 handicap94.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals93.8%-------
Under 5.593.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals87.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals85.2%-------
Under 4.584.6%-------
Home or Draw84.0%-------
Home +1 handicap84.0%-------
Over 1.578.1%-------
Away under 1.5 goals77.4%-------
Home or Away76.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals70.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Super Nova and Grobiņa have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Super Nova and Grobiņa have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Super Nova and Grobiņa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Super Nova and Grobiņa have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
SN wins
4
Draws
0
GRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs Grobiņa · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26HSN Vs Grobiņa2-0
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0
26/07/25HSN Vs Grobiņa0-0
26/05/25AGrobiņa Vs SN1-1
10/04/25HSN Vs Grobiņa1-1

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AAuda Vs SN1-1
22/08/26HSN Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
09/08/26HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-2
20/07/26HSN Vs Grobiņa2-0
06/07/26HSN Vs Ogre United1-2
01/07/26ATukums Vs SN1-2
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HGRO Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
21/08/26AFK Liepaja Vs GRO3-1
10/08/26ARīgas FS Vs GRO6-1
02/08/26ARiga Vs GRO4-0
27/07/26HGRO Vs Ogre United2-2
20/07/26ASuper Nova Vs GRO2-0
05/07/26HGRO Vs Tukums3-1
23/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs GRO0-1
20/11/25HGRO Vs JDFS Alberts0-0
09/11/25HGRO Vs Auda2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.22
HomeWLWLD1.32
AwayLDDWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.742.762.72
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.441.481.40
Conceded1.301.281.32
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW0.86
HomeDDWDW1.24
AwayWLLLL0.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%32%12%
AVG goals2.802.762.84
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored0.901.240.56
Conceded1.901.522.28
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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