PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Super Nova vs Rīgas FS Result & Analysis

Date: 23/10/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 0-4
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
8%
15%
77%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova win✗ Miss
8.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-732W32W10W07L03L22D03L14L02L13LA·SPA30/07A·RĪG07/08H·BFC20/08A·VAL27/08H·MET04/09H·FK 11/09A·AUD18/09H·RIG30/09A·TUK08/10H·SPA16/10
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.200.732.330.602.07
vs Stronger (16)0.692.941.003.290.442.67
vs Similar (14)0.641.360.501.500.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D11D30W02L31W60W00D11D03L22DH·RIG04/09A·FIO08/09H·SPA12/09H·HEA15/09A·BFC27/09H·MET01/10H·BAŞ06/10A·AUD09/10A·BAŞ13/10H·TUK16/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.072.001.071.401.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.601.701.001.200.202.20
vs Weaker (20)2.250.752.501.002.000.50
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.4%
Under 1.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.3%
Under 2.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.3%
0-3
9.5%
1-2
8.7%
1-3
8.1%
1-1
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
0-4 ✓
6.7%
1-4
5.6%
Super Nova goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
01234
03.3%6.7%10%9.5%6.7%
11.6%6.9%8.7%8.1%5.6%
20.9%2.6%3.7%3.4%2.4%
30.3%0.7%1.0%1.0%0.7%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Super Nova is 1.56 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (0.56 vs 2.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Super Nova is 1.64 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Super Nova is 1.36 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D00D03L00D10W01L11D01L12LA·SPA30/07A·RĪG07/08H·BFC20/08A·VAL27/08H·MET04/09H·FK 11/09A·AUD18/09H·RIG30/09A·TUK08/10H·SPA16/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.970.400.870.331.07
vs Stronger (16)0.311.250.571.140.111.33
vs Similar (14)0.430.640.250.620.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D10W01L11D30W00D01L02L10WH·RIG04/09A·FIO08/09H·SPA12/09H·HEA15/09A·BFC27/09H·MET01/10H·BAŞ06/10A·AUD09/10A·BAŞ13/10H·TUK16/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.470.670.400.400.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.100.700.200.400.001.00
vs Weaker (20)0.750.350.900.400.600.30
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W21W10W04L03L12L02L03L01L01LA·SPA30/07A·RĪG07/08H·BFC20/08A·VAL27/08H·MET04/09H·FK 11/09A·AUD18/09H·RIG30/09A·TUK08/10H·SPA16/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.230.331.470.271.00
vs Stronger (16)0.381.690.432.140.331.33
vs Similar (14)0.210.710.250.880.170.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D20W01L20W30W00D10W01L12LH·RIG04/09A·FIO08/09H·SPA12/09H·HEA15/09A·BFC27/09H·MET01/10H·BAŞ06/10A·AUD09/10A·BAŞ13/10H·TUK16/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.601.330.671.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.501.000.800.800.201.20
vs Weaker (20)1.500.401.600.601.400.20
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.4%-------✓ Hit
Away win77.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.3%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rīgas FS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Friesenbichler17%
Andrej Ilić17%
Deniss Rakels0%
Pāvels Šteinbors0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Petr Mareš0%
Artūrs Zjuzins0%
Stefan Panić0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Vladislavs Sorokins0%
Tomáš Šimkovič0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Alfusainey Jatta0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artūrs Zjuzins50%
Stefan Panić40%
Tomáš Šimkovič40%
Petr Mareš33%
Žiga Lipušček33%
Alfusainey Jatta33%
Vladislavs Sorokins25%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis20%
Pāvels Šteinbors17%
Andrej Ilić17%
Kevin Friesenbichler0%
Deniss Rakels0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Friesenbichler17%
Andrej Ilić17%
Deniss Rakels0%
Pāvels Šteinbors0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Petr Mareš0%
Artūrs Zjuzins0%
Stefan Panić0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Vladislavs Sorokins0%
Tomáš Šimkovič0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Alfusainey Jatta0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić17%
Žiga Lipušček17%
Kevin Friesenbichler0%
Deniss Rakels0%
Pāvels Šteinbors0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Petr Mareš0%
Artūrs Zjuzins0%
Stefan Panić0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Vladislavs Sorokins0%
Tomáš Šimkovič0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Alfusainey Jatta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Super Nova's squad is €8m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€3m vs €11m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova's attack is €5m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Super Nova and Rīgas FS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Super Nova's defence is €2m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
SN wins
0
Draws
2
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs Rīgas FS · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/22ARīgas FS Vs SN2-3
23/05/22HSN Vs Rīgas FS0-3
15/04/22ARīgas FS Vs SN2-0

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/10/22HSN Vs Spartaks Jurmala1-3
08/10/22ATukums Vs SN2-0
30/09/22HSN Vs Riga1-4
18/09/22AAuda Vs SN3-0
11/09/22HSN Vs FK Liepaja2-2
04/09/22HSN Vs Metta / LU0-3
27/08/22AValmiera / BSS Vs SN7-0
20/08/22HSN Vs BFC Daugavpils1-0
07/08/22ARīgas FS Vs SN2-3
30/07/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs SN2-3

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/10/22HRF Vs Tukums2-2
13/10/22ABaşakşehir Vs RF3-0
09/10/22AAuda Vs RF1-1
06/10/22HRF Vs Başakşehir0-0
01/10/22HRF Vs Metta / LU6-0
27/09/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs RF1-3
15/09/22HRF Vs Heart Of Midlothian0-2
12/09/22HRF Vs Spartaks Jurmala3-0
08/09/22AFiorentina Vs RF1-1
04/09/22HRF Vs Riga1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.56
HomeWLDLL0.56
AwayWWLLL0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%12%12%
AVG goals2.812.882.75
Over 1.5 %72%69%75%
Over 2.5 %53%69%38%
Over 3.5 %34%38%31%
Scored0.660.690.62
Conceded2.162.192.12
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet12%19%6%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLD1.88
HomeWLWDD1.77
AwayWDWDL2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%45%60%
AVG goals3.072.953.20
Over 1.5 %86%86%85%
Over 2.5 %60%64%55%
Over 3.5 %43%45%40%
Scored2.052.002.10
Conceded1.020.951.10
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet38%45%30%
Corners9.259.509.00
Cards6.758.754.75

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches