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Super Nova vs Tukums Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/09/2026
Time: 16:00
Super Nova
Super Nova
Vs
54%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Super Nova are favoured to win, with a 54 % chance of a home victory, 26 % for a draw and 20 % for Tukums to come away with a win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.5 % probability. Super Nova’s home form shows an average of 1.11 goals scored and 0.44 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Tukums, playing away, averages only 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded to comparable opponents.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.1 %), Under 5.5 (94.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.8 %), Home +2 handicap (92.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.6 %) and Under 4.5 (86.9 %). Each of these is presented with its exact probability. The recent form notes that Super Nova are coming off a draw, while Tukums have endured two straight defeats.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Super Nova win
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D22D13L30W21W12L20W12L00D11DA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.431.181.291.151.62
vs Stronger (13)1.312.231.292.431.332.00
vs Similar (17)1.060.821.100.501.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D12L13L13L01L21W02L03L14LA·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11H·SUP01/07A·GRO05/07A·RIG18/07H·RĪG27/07H·FK 02/08A·BFC08/08A·AUD21/08H·FS 29/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.102.001.312.000.862.00
vs Stronger (18)1.002.391.332.220.672.56
vs Similar (12)1.251.421.291.711.201.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
5.8%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
Super Nova goals ↓
Tukums goals →
01234
08.2%5.6%3.2%1.0%0.2%
111%13%5.4%1.7%0.4%
210%9.7%4.6%1.5%0.3%
35.8%5.5%2.6%0.8%0.2%
42.5%2.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Super Nova goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Super Nova is 0.96 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Super Nova is 0.42 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Super Nova is 1.38 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Super Nova or Draw
80.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
26%
20%
covers Super Nova + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova or Tukums
73.8%
Avg Implied -
54%
26%
20%
covers Super Nova + Tukums
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tukums
46.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
26%
20%
covers Draw + Tukums
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Super Nova over/under 0.5
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 3.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Super Nova, so a minus line means Super Nova give that many goals of a start and Tukums receive them. At -1, Super Nova must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Super Nova win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Super Nova)
Super Nova -2
13.4%
Draw -2
16.9%
Tukums +2
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Super Nova)
Super Nova -1
30.3%
Draw -1
23.5%
Tukums +1
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Super Nova)
Super Nova +1
80.1%
Draw +1
12.7%
Tukums -1
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Super Nova)
Super Nova +2
92.8%
Draw +2
5.3%
Tukums -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W11D00D00D10W00D01LA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.470.530.381.00
vs Stronger (13)0.541.150.571.000.501.33
vs Similar (17)0.350.410.400.200.290.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D02L10W01L11D00D01L11DA·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11H·SUP01/07A·GRO05/07A·RIG18/07H·RĪG27/07H·FK 02/08A·BFC08/08A·AUD21/08H·FS 29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.561.000.640.79
vs Stronger (18)0.611.170.671.330.561.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.500.430.570.800.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
Under 0.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.8%
Under 1.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W12L10W10W12L20W02L00D10WA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.710.760.770.62
vs Stronger (13)0.771.080.711.430.830.67
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.700.300.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L11D03L00D10W02L02L03LA·AUD02/11H·FS 09/11H·SUP01/07A·GRO05/07A·RIG18/07H·RĪG27/07H·FK 02/08A·BFC08/08A·AUD21/08H·FS 29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.100.751.000.211.21
vs Stronger (18)0.391.220.670.890.111.56
vs Similar (12)0.670.920.861.140.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.8%
Under 1.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
Under 2.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals99.1%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals98.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals96.7%-------
Under 5.594.7%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals92.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.8%-------
Home +2 handicap92.8%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals92.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.6%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals90.2%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals88.6%-------
Under 4.586.9%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals83.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.8%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals80.8%-------
Home or Draw80.1%-------
Home +1 handicap80.1%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals77.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals75.6%-------
Over 1.575.5%-------
Away under 1.5 goals75.3%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals74.7%-------
Home or Away73.8%-------
Under 3.572.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Super Nova and Tukums have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Super Nova and Tukums have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Super Nova and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Super Nova and Tukums have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
SN wins
2
Draws
4
TUK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Super Nova vs Tukums · H/A from SN
DateH/AGameScore
01/07/26ATukums Vs SN1-2
28/09/25ATukums Vs SN2-1
06/07/25HSN Vs Tukums1-0
16/05/25HSN Vs Tukums1-1
31/03/25ATukums Vs SN2-2
17/09/23ATukums Vs SN1-0
30/06/23HSN Vs Tukums2-5
27/05/23ATukums Vs SN3-2

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AAuda Vs SN1-1
22/08/26HSN Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
09/08/26HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-2
20/07/26HSN Vs Grobiņa2-0
06/07/26HSN Vs Ogre United1-2
01/07/26ATukums Vs SN1-2
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HTUK Vs FS Jelgava1-4
21/08/26AAuda Vs TUK3-0
08/08/26ABFC Daugavpils Vs TUK2-0
02/08/26HTUK Vs FK Liepaja2-1
27/07/26HTUK Vs Rīgas FS0-1
18/07/26ARiga Vs TUK3-1
05/07/26AGrobiņa Vs TUK3-1
01/07/26HTUK Vs Super Nova1-2
09/11/25HTUK Vs FS Jelgava1-1
02/11/25AAuda Vs TUK0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.22
HomeWLWLD1.32
AwayLDDWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.742.762.72
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.441.481.40
Conceded1.301.281.32
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.86
HomeDLLWL1.08
AwayWLLLL0.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals3.083.003.15
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.021.210.85
Conceded2.061.792.31
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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