The model predicts a home win for Sutjeska against Buducnost Podgorica, with a 46% chance of a Sutjeska victory, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of an away win. The expected total goals in this match is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%.
Sutjeska has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.79 goals and conceding 0.86 goals against similar opponents. Buducnost Podgorica, on the other hand, has been conceding an average of 1 goal while scoring 0.8 goals when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 76.3% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 72% probability. The model's selection of Under 3.5 has a 1% edge, while the selection of Over 1.5 has a 4% edge.
In terms of win probabilities, Sutjeska has a 46% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came in the Montenegro: First League as Buducnost Podgorica defeated Sutjeska 0-1, extending their win streak after a string of four straight defeats. The pre-match favourite, Sutjeska, had been predicted to win by the model, with a 46% probability, but their call was incorrect. The model had also selected the Under 3.5 goals outcome, which hit, with a 76.3% probability, and the Over 1.5 goals outcome, which missed, with a 72.0% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutjeska win✗ Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 1.97
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.06
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Dafabet
3.15
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.65
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.25
1xBet
4.06
Betano
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.00
1.73
0.93
1.47
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.79
1.11
1.78
0.78
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.70
1.80
1.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
1.20
0.87
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.86
1.00
0.33
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
1.00
1.33
1.22
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.34+3.7%
Under 1.5
28.0%
@ 2.90-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
BetVictor
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.0%
@ 2.10+1.1%
Under 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.65-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 3.73-0.8%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.21+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.58
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.87+1.1%
No
49.7%
@ 1.81-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
No
William Hil
1.85
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 5.73+6.4%
1-0
10.9%@ 6.03+3.9%
0-0
9.7%@ 7.78+4.2%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.13+3.9%
2-0
8.8%@ 8.24+3.7%
0-1 ✓
7.4%@ 8.71+2.5%
1-2
6.4%@ 11.76+2.8%
2-2
4.7%@ 14.11+1.7%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.4%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Sutjeska is 0.20 points worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Sutjeska is 0.80 goals better than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Sutjeska is 0.60 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.33
0.47
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.53
0.33
0.33
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.36
0.33
0.00
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.25
0.78
0.33
0.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.40
0.47
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.58
1.44
0.44
1.20
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
1.40
0.40
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.75
0.56
0.89
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.3%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.0%
1.34
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
+3.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Sutjeska's squad is €2m more valuable than Buducnost Podgorica's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €1m more valuable than Buducnost Podgorica's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Sutjeska and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Sutjeska and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Jezero
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG