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Sutjeska vs Jezero Result & Analysis

Date: 03/04/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Vs
43%
29%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Sutjeska are tipped to lift the trophy, with a 43% chance of a home win, 29% for a draw and 28% for Jezero to win. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. Sutjeska, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while Jezero, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.9% probability and Over 1.5 with a 72.4% probability. The home win probability is 43%, the draw probability 29%, and the away win probability 28%.

Results analysis

The win extends Sutjeska’s recent run, while Jezero returns after a defeat. The final score was 2-1, confirming a home victory. The model had picked a home win with a 43% probability, and this call was correct. The suggested selections were Under 3.5 goals at 75.9% and Over 1.5 goals at 72.4%; both hit. The most likely total was 2 goals, a 27% chance, and the most probable scoreline was 1-1 at 13.9%. Overall, the predictions aligned well with the outcome, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sutjeska win✓ Hit
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D01L11D10W11D21W21W00D21WA·RUD02/12A·JEZ10/12A·MOR18/02H·ARS24/02A·JED28/02H·BUD03/03A·PET09/03H·MLA13/03A·DEČ17/03H·RUD30/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.901.571.140.940.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.281.111.621.381.000.90
vs Weaker (12)1.170.581.500.830.830.33
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D13L03L10W02L10W11D10W31WA·MOR04/12H·SUT10/12A·ARS17/02H·JED24/02A·BUD28/02H·PET03/03A·MLA09/03H·DEČ13/03A·RUD17/03H·MOR30/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.931.190.941.290.93
vs Stronger (7)1.001.000.331.331.500.75
vs Similar (20)1.201.001.170.831.251.25
vs Weaker (3)2.000.334.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.4%
Under 2.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.3%
No
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
9.5%
2-1 ✓
8.9%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
4.9%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Jezero goals →
01234
09.5%7.7%4.9%1.8%0.5%
110%14%6.9%2.5%0.7%
28.2%8.9%4.8%1.7%0.5%
33.8%4.2%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.3%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Sutjeska is 0.06 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Sutjeska is 0.14 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Sutjeska
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Sutjeska is 0.06 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SutjeskaSutjeska

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D00D00D10W01L11D11D00D11DA·RUD02/12A·JEZ10/12A·MOR18/02H·ARS24/02A·JED28/02H·BUD03/03A·PET09/03H·MLA13/03A·DEČ17/03H·RUD30/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.400.430.430.560.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.390.620.380.400.40
vs Weaker (12)0.500.420.170.500.830.33
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D03L01L00D00D10W00D00D10WA·MOR04/12H·SUT10/12A·ARS17/02H·JED24/02A·BUD28/02H·PET03/03A·MLA09/03H·DEČ13/03A·RUD17/03H·MOR30/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.330.380.310.430.36
vs Stronger (7)0.000.290.000.670.000.00
vs Similar (20)0.450.350.330.170.620.62
vs Weaker (3)1.000.332.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SutjeskaSutjeska

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L11D00D10W10W10W00D10WA·RUD02/12A·JEZ10/12A·MOR18/02H·ARS24/02A·JED28/02H·BUD03/03A·PET09/03H·MLA13/03A·DEČ17/03H·RUD30/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.501.140.710.380.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.780.721.001.000.600.50
vs Weaker (12)0.670.171.330.330.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W02L10W02L00D11D10W21WA·MOR04/12H·SUT10/12A·ARS17/02H·JED24/02A·BUD28/02H·PET03/03A·MLA09/03H·DEČ13/03A·RUD17/03H·MOR30/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.810.620.860.57
vs Stronger (7)1.000.710.330.671.500.75
vs Similar (20)0.750.650.830.670.620.62
vs Weaker (3)1.000.002.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Sutjeska's squad is €4m more valuable than Jezero's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €2m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Sutjeska and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Sutjeska's defence is €1m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
SUT wins
3
Draws
1
JEZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sutjeska vs Jezero · H/A from SUT
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/23AJezero Vs SUT0-0
27/09/23HSUT Vs Jezero1-1
23/07/23AJezero Vs SUT0-1
09/04/23AJezero Vs SUT0-0
18/02/23HSUT Vs Jezero4-2
09/10/22AJezero Vs SUT1-0
31/07/22HSUT Vs Jezero3-0

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24HSUT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-1
17/03/24ADečić Vs SUT0-0
13/03/24HSUT Vs Mladost DG2-1
09/03/24APetrovac Vs SUT1-2
03/03/24HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-1
28/02/24AJedinstvo Vs SUT0-1
24/02/24HSUT Vs Arsenal Tivat1-1
18/02/24AMornar Vs SUT1-0
10/12/23AJezero Vs SUT0-0
02/12/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs SUT1-2

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24HJEZ Vs Mornar3-1
17/03/24ARudar (Montenegro) Vs JEZ0-1
13/03/24HJEZ Vs Dečić1-1
09/03/24AMladost DG Vs JEZ0-1
03/03/24HJEZ Vs Petrovac0-2
28/02/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs JEZ0-1
24/02/24HJEZ Vs Jedinstvo0-3
17/02/24AArsenal Tivat Vs JEZ3-1
10/12/23HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-0
04/12/23AMornar Vs JEZ2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.74
HomeDDDWW1.88
AwayDLWWD1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.603.172.08
Over 1.5 %76%88%65%
Over 2.5 %44%58%31%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.601.881.35
Conceded1.001.290.73
BTTS62%79%46%
Clean Sheet30%17%42%
Corners10.257.5013.00
Cards6.005.506.50
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.32
HomeDLLDW1.48
AwayLLWWW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals1.941.722.16
Over 1.5 %56%56%56%
Over 2.5 %34%28%40%
Over 3.5 %16%12%20%
Scored0.980.961.00
Conceded0.960.761.16
BTTS46%36%56%
Clean Sheet38%48%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić3670
56%
1.9
5527+28
2.3
69%
36%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.50.8
-
2MornarMornar3664
47%
1.8
4532+13
2.1
50%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
3Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3661
47%
1.7
6643+23
3.0
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.81.2
-
4SutjeskaSutjeska3653
36%
1.5
4636+10
2.3
67%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.0
-
5JezeroJezero3651
39%
1.4
4138+3
2.2
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.1
-
6PetrovacPetrovac3648
31%
1.3
4240+2
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.1
-
7Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3642
25%
1.2
4358-15
2.8
83%
47%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.6
-
8JedinstvoJedinstvo3839
24%
1.0
4657-11
2.7
74%
45%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG3835
24%
0.9
3962-23
2.7
76%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.6
-
10Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3627
19%
0.8
2554-29
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.5
-
11Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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