Sutjeska’s defensive solidity is the headline, conceding just 0.75 goals per game at home against weaker opposition, while Jezero’s away form shows a higher concession rate of 1.5 against stronger teams. The model projects a tight affair with an expected 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance, and the model favours a home win. Home win odds sit at 43%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 25%. The single suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 82.2% probability, and the model notes it was hit. Sutjeska’s recent form includes a win over Mladost DG, while Jezero comes off a defeat to Dečić. The match is expected to stay low-scoring, with the home side’s 2.0 average goals scored and Jezero’s 1.0 average goals scored shaping the final outcome.
Results analysis
Sutjeska’s recent win over Mladost DG extended their winning run, and Jezero entered after a defeat to Dečić. The model’s favourite, a home win, came through as the final score was 2-1, confirming the prediction. The model had a 43% chance of a home victory, 31% for a draw and 25% for an away win. The most likely total was 2 goals, with a 28% probability, and the 1-1 scoreline had a 14.4% chance. The suggested pick “Under 3.5” was correct, with an 82.2% probability and it hit. All selections settled as forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutjeska win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.13
0.80
1.13
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.91
1.23
0.36
1.27
1.45
1.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.88
2.00
0.75
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.33
1.00
1.14
0.69
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
1.25
0.90
0.90
0.64
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.5%
Under 1.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.4%
Under 2.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.8%
Under 3.5
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
12.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
9.0%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.7%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Jezero goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.1%
8.3%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Sutjeska is 0.23 points better than Jezero in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Sutjeska is 0.14 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Sutjeska is 0.10 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.55
0.27
0.55
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.12
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.43
0.29
0.25
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.58
0.30
0.20
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.09
0.73
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jezero
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.57
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.67
0.60
0.70
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Sutjeska's squad is €4m more valuable than Jezero's (€5m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €2m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Sutjeska and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Sutjeska's defence is €1m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Buducnost Podgorica
Petrovac
Dečić
Arsenal Tivat
Mornar
Bokelj
Jedinstvo
Otrant-Olympic
Lovćen
Rudar (Montenegro)