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Sutjeska vs Jezero Prediction & Stats

Date: 28/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Vs
61%
22%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Sutjeska are tipped to win, with a 57% chance of triumph, 24% for a draw and 19% for Jezero. The model projects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, with a 24% probability. The single scoreline most likely to materialise is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% chance. Sutjeska, playing at home against a weaker side, normally scores 1.8 and concedes 1.0 goals. Jezero, on the road to a stronger opponent, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Home +2 handicap (92.8%), Under 5.5 (91.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.9%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.6%). Sutjeska’s recent form, a win after a 5-1 victory over Mladost DG, gives them a fresh boost, while Jezero, having lost 1-2 to Dečić, will look to rebound.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sutjeska win
61.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jezero win
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D30W10W13L12L01L01L14L00D51WA·ARS09/05H·DEČ16/05A·MLA20/05H·JED24/05H·ML 30/07H·BUD03/08A·BOK09/08H·OTR15/08A·JEZ22/08H·MLA28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.101.811.061.501.14
vs Stronger (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (19)1.891.261.901.001.891.56
vs Weaker (10)1.300.701.801.000.800.40
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D02L02L30W51W00D10W03L00D12LH·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08A·PET16/08H·SUT22/08A·DEČ30/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.131.000.691.001.64
vs Stronger (5)0.600.800.670.330.501.50
vs Similar (25)1.081.201.080.771.081.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.8%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
4.9%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Jezero goals →
01234
05.7%3.7%2.3%0.8%0.2%
18.8%11%4.7%1.6%0.4%
210%9.9%4.9%1.6%0.4%
37.0%6.9%3.4%1.1%0.3%
43.6%3.5%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Jezero goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Sutjeska is 0.20 points worse than Jezero in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Sutjeska is 0.80 goals better than Jezero in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 0.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Sutjeska is 0.40 goals worse than Jezero in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sutjeska or Draw
83.8%
Avg Implied -
61%
22%
16%
covers Sutjeska + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska or Jezero
77.6%
Avg Implied -
61%
22%
16%
covers Sutjeska + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jezero
38.6%
Avg Implied -
61%
22%
16%
covers Draw + Jezero
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5
Over
61.1%
Under
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 3.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Sutjeska, so a minus line means Sutjeska give that many goals of a start and Jezero receive them. At -1, Sutjeska must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sutjeska win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska -2
19.6%
Draw -2
19.0%
Jezero +2
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska -1
38.6%
Draw -1
22.8%
Jezero +1
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska +1
83.8%
Draw +1
10.3%
Jezero -1
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska +2
94.2%
Draw +2
4.3%
Jezero -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SutjeskaSutjeska

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D03L01L00D01L12L00D20WA·ARS09/05H·DEČ16/05A·MLA20/05H·JED24/05H·ML 30/07H·BUD03/08A·BOK09/08H·OTR15/08A·JEZ22/08H·MLA28/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.440.560.570.57
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (19)0.580.630.500.500.670.78
vs Weaker (10)0.400.400.400.600.400.20
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L20W20W00D10W00D00D11DH·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08A·PET16/08H·SUT22/08A·DEČ30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.370.440.380.570.36
vs Stronger (5)0.200.400.330.330.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.560.360.460.380.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SutjeskaSutjeska

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W10W10W11D01L00D02L00D31WA·ARS09/05H·DEČ16/05A·MLA20/05H·JED24/05H·ML 30/07H·BUD03/08A·BOK09/08H·OTR15/08A·JEZ22/08H·MLA28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.531.380.500.930.57
vs Stronger (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (19)1.320.631.400.501.220.78
vs Weaker (10)0.900.301.400.400.400.20
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Jezero) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JezeroJezero

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L01L10W31W00D00D03L00D01LH·MLA16/05A·JED20/05H·MOR24/05H·ISK29/05A·ISK03/06H·MOR02/08H·MLA09/08A·PET16/08H·SUT22/08A·DEČ30/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.560.310.431.29
vs Stronger (5)0.400.400.330.000.501.00
vs Similar (25)0.520.840.620.380.421.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jezero over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.2%-------
Under 6.596.4%-------
Home +2 handicap94.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.3%-------
Under 5.591.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.5%-------
Home or Draw83.8%-------
Home +1 handicap83.8%-------
Over 1.581.8%-------
Under 4.580.7%-------
Home or Away77.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals74.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Sutjeska's squad is €4m more valuable than Jezero's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €2m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Sutjeska and Jezero have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Sutjeska's defence is €1m more valuable than Jezero's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SUT wins
3
Draws
2
JEZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sutjeska vs Jezero · H/A from SUT
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26AJezero Vs SUT0-0
26/04/26HSUT Vs Jezero1-1
01/03/26AJezero Vs SUT1-1
26/10/25HSUT Vs Jezero1-0
24/08/25AJezero Vs SUT2-1
18/05/25AJezero Vs SUT2-0
29/03/25HSUT Vs Jezero2-1
25/11/24AJezero Vs SUT0-1

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HSUT Vs Mladost DG5-1
22/08/26AJezero Vs SUT0-0
15/08/26HSUT Vs Otrant-Olympic1-4
09/08/26ABokelj Vs SUT1-0
03/08/26HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-1
30/07/26HSUT Vs ML Vitebsk1-2
24/05/26HSUT Vs Jedinstvo1-3
20/05/26AMladost DG Vs SUT0-1
16/05/26HSUT Vs Dečić3-0
09/05/26AArsenal Tivat Vs SUT1-1

JezeroJezero

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ADečić Vs JEZ2-1
22/08/26HJEZ Vs Sutjeska0-0
16/08/26APetrovac Vs JEZ3-0
09/08/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG1-0
02/08/26HJEZ Vs Mornar0-0
03/06/26AIskra (Montenegro) Vs JEZ1-5
29/05/26HJEZ Vs Iskra (Montenegro)3-0
24/05/26HJEZ Vs Mornar0-2
20/05/26AJedinstvo Vs JEZ2-0
16/05/26HJEZ Vs Mladost DG2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.72
HomeLLLLW1.85
AwayWDWLD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%58%46%
AVG goals2.803.082.50
Over 1.5 %74%85%62%
Over 2.5 %48%58%38%
Over 3.5 %26%31%21%
Scored1.621.921.29
Conceded1.181.151.21
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet36%31%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Jezero
Jezero
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDL1.32
HomeLWDWD1.56
AwayLLWLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.282.122.44
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %42%40%44%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored1.121.241.00
Conceded1.160.881.44
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet32%44%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar612
50%
2.0
84+4
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.30.7
-
3BokeljBokelj68
33%
1.3
23-1
0.8
17%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.30.5
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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