The clash between Sutjeska and Mornar is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probability of a Sutjeska victory sits at 40%, a draw at 29%, and a Mornar win at 31%. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.7% chance. Sutjeska, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Mornar, on the road versus a similar side, averages 1.29 scored and 0.71 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%), and Under 5.5 (95.0%). Sutjeska entered the match after a win, while Mornar remains unbeaten in five games, setting the stage for a closely contested encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutjeska win
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.10
1.81
1.06
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.89
1.26
1.90
1.00
1.89
1.56
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.70
1.80
1.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.60
1.73
0.47
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.41
0.59
1.54
0.46
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.3%
2-2
5.3%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Mornar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.5%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.1%
14%
7.4%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.8%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.5%
4.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Sutjeska is 1.20 points worse than Mornar in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Sutjeska is 0.13 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Sutjeska is 0.73 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sutjeska or Draw
69.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
31%
covers Sutjeska + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska or Mornar
71.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
31%
covers Sutjeska + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mornar
59.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sutjeska, so a minus line means Sutjeska give that many goals of a start and Mornar receive them. At -1, Sutjeska must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sutjeska win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska -2
7.6%
Draw -2
12.5%
Mornar +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska -1
20.1%
Draw -1
20.8%
Mornar +1
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska +1
69.4%
Draw +1
17.4%
Mornar -1
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sutjeska)
Sutjeska +2
86.8%
Draw +2
8.9%
Mornar -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.44
0.56
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.26
0.77
0.23
0.79
0.29
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.8%
Under 1.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.8%
Under 2.5
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.38
0.50
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.32
0.63
1.40
0.50
1.22
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
1.40
0.40
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mornar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.33
0.77
0.23
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.1%
Under 0.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.5%
Under 1.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.5%
Under 2.5
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Sutjeska's squad is €1m more valuable than Mornar's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €1m more valuable than Mornar's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Sutjeska and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Sutjeska and Mornar have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG