Sutjeska is the favourite to win against Otrant-Olympic, with the match likely to be a low-scoring, closely contested affair. The recent form of both teams suggests a storyline of reversal, with Sutjeska snapping a four-game losing streak and Otrant-Olympic drawing their previous match.
The model predicts a 58% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and an 18% chance of an away win. The most likely match result is a home win, with an expected total of 2.8 goals. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a 11.8% probability.
At home, Sutjeska has averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opponents. Away from home, Otrant-Olympic has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 77.7% probability. Sutjeska has a 58% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and an 18% chance of losing. The model's selection of Over 1.5 has a 77.7% chance of occurring, and is the only selection.
Results analysis
The upset of the day comes from Montenegro's First League, where Otrant-Olympic stunned Sutjeska 4-1. The win extends their recent form, which now reads WDLWW after coming off a 4-1 victory over Sutjeska. Meanwhile, Sutjeska's woes continue, having lost their last five matches, including a 1-4 defeat to Otrant-Olympic. The pre-match favourite, Sutjeska's home win, was a 58% probability but ultimately proved incorrect. The model's selection, also a home win, was wrong, as Otrant-Olympic's away win was the actual result. The model's other selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 77.7% probability, while the most likely total goals of 2 was way off the mark.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sutjeska win✗ Miss
57.5%
Avg Implied 46.2% · @ 1.96
Edge
+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.02
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.08
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Bet365
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Otrant-Olympic win✓ Hit
17.8%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.71
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.04
Marathonbet
3.94
Pinnacle
3.89
Dafabet
3.80
Betano
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sutjeska
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.03
1.53
0.93
1.47
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.55
1.10
1.44
0.78
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.78
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.90
2.67
0.87
1.60
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.14
0.71
2.83
0.67
1.62
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
2.12
1.06
2.56
1.00
1.57
1.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.36+10.3%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 2.80-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.78
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 2.17+10.2%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.60-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 3.89+7.0%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.19-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.20
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.88
Marathonbet
3.88
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.4%
@ 1.92+4.6%
No
47.6%
@ 1.75-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.95
Betfair
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
No
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 5.75+4.4%
2-0
10.5%@ 8.17+5.3%
1-0
10.3%@ 5.96+3.2%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.58+5.0%
0-0
7.3%@ 7.37+1.5%
3-0
6.5%@ 15.33+3.7%
3-1
6.1%@ 16.17+3.5%
1-2
5.0%@ 11.83+1.5%
Sutjeska goals ↓
Otrant-Olympic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
4.7%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.5%
0.3%
3
6.5%
6.1%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.0%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutjeska goals (down), columns = Otrant-Olympic goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Sutjeska is 0.60 points worse than Otrant-Olympic in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Sutjeska is 0.20 goals worse than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Sutjeska and Otrant-Olympic are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.27
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.55
0.22
0.33
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.44
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.27
1.47
0.20
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.14
1.67
0.00
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.38
1.33
0.33
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sutjeska
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.27
0.47
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.55
1.22
0.44
1.09
0.64
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.40
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.20
0.67
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.57
1.17
0.67
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.69
1.22
0.67
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
+10.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Sutjeska's squad is €4m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Sutjeska's attack is €2m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Sutjeska and Otrant-Olympic have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Sutjeska's defence is €1m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€2m vs €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dečić
Mornar
Bokelj
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG