Pythia gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 44% win probability against SC Paderborn 07 in the Germany: 2. Bundesliga on 2026-05-17, with 28% for the draw and 28% for SC Paderborn 07. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 2.5 cards (84%), Over 19.5 fouls (84%), Over 1.5 (77%), Under 11.5 corners (74%).
Results analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 finished 0-2 against SC Paderborn 07 (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 28% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Over 2.5 cards (84%), Over 19.5 fouls (84%), Over 1.5 (77%), Under 11.5 corners (74%), Over 21.5 fouls (72%), Under 3.5 (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 win✗ Miss
44.0%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.32
Edge
+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.04
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 win✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 49.8% · @ 1.84
Edge
-21.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.81
1.46
2.00
0.92
1.64
1.93
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.37
2.13
1.60
1.40
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.35
2.09
1.64
1.25
1.08
vs Weaker (7)
2.14
1.43
2.25
1.50
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Darmstadt 98) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.33-18.2%
Under 2.5
48.6%
@ 3.04+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
7.7%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
SV Darmstadt 98 goals ↓
SC Paderborn 07 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
6.6%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.8%
13%
7.1%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.2%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.9%
4.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Darmstadt 98 goals (down), columns = SC Paderborn 07 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
2.06
SV Elversberg
1.82
SC Paderborn 07
1.82
Hannover 96
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.50
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
Karlsruher SC
1.29
VfL Bochum
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
1. FC Magdeburg
1.15
Arminia Bielefeld
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.09
Preußen Münster
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 is 0.29 points worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SV Elversberg
1.88
Hannover 96
1.76
SC Paderborn 07
1.74
SV Darmstadt 98
1.68
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.53
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.53
FC Schalke 04
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
Hertha BSC
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.12
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.97
Rot-Weiß Essen
0.50
SV Darmstadt 98 is 0.06 goals worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Schalke 04
0.91
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.00
SV Elversberg
1.15
Hertha BSC
1.29
Hannover 96
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
SC Paderborn 07
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
VfL Bochum
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.38
Holstein Kiel
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.56
Dynamo Dresden
1.56
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.59
1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
Preußen Münster
1.79
Karlsruher SC
1.88
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.92
SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hannover 96
56%
1. FC Magdeburg
54%
SV Elversberg
53%
SC Paderborn 07
53%
Arminia Bielefeld
52%
Holstein Kiel
52%
Preußen Münster
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
51%
Dynamo Dresden
50%
1. FC Nürnberg
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
49%
Hertha BSC
49%
Karlsruher SC
48%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
48%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
48%
FC Schalke 04
46%
VfL Bochum
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
44%
Rot-Weiß Essen
39%
SV Darmstadt 98 is 1.8 percentage points worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average possession (51% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98
For 4.5 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Paderborn 07
For 4.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Darmstadt 98
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.8
4.2
4.0
4.4
23.7
24.5
23.1
vs Stronger (4)
9.8
9.3
11.0
4.5
5.7
1.0
26.5
28.7
20.0
vs Similar (39)
10.3
10.7
9.9
4.1
3.9
4.3
23.7
24.2
23.3
vs Weaker (7)
10.6
12.3
9.2
4.6
2.7
6.0
22.1
21.7
22.5
% over line
52%
54%
50%
60%
50%
69%
70%
79%
62%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
40%
50%
31%
30%
21%
38%
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.6
9.1
4.5
3.9
5.1
24.5
23.3
25.6
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
12.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (35)
9.6
10.2
8.9
4.6
3.8
5.5
23.6
22.8
24.6
vs Weaker (14)
10.3
11.8
9.4
4.4
4.6
4.3
26.7
25.2
27.6
% over line
58%
72%
44%
72%
60%
84%
70%
60%
80%
% under line
42%
28%
56%
28%
40%
16%
30%
40%
20%
This opponent (SV Darmstadt 98) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
VfL Bochum
10.7
Hertha BSC
10.7
Dynamo Dresden
10.6
1. FC Magdeburg
10.3
SV Darmstadt 98
10.3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
Hannover 96
10.2
Holstein Kiel
10.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.1
Arminia Bielefeld
9.9
Preußen Münster
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
1. FC Nürnberg
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.7
SV Elversberg
9.6
Karlsruher SC
9.2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Preußen Münster
5.6
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.3
Holstein Kiel
5.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
5.1
1. FC Nürnberg
4.9
Hannover 96
4.8
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.8
VfL Bochum
4.7
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.7
1. FC Magdeburg
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.6
Karlsruher SC
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.5
Hertha BSC
4.4
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
Arminia Bielefeld
4.2
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Preußen Münster
26.7
Hannover 96
26.6
Holstein Kiel
25.8
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.6
Arminia Bielefeld
25.4
1. FC Nürnberg
25.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
24.8
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hertha BSC
24.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.2
SV Elversberg
24.0
SV Darmstadt 98
23.7
FC Schalke 04
23.7
1. FC Magdeburg
23.5
Dynamo Dresden
23.4
Karlsruher SC
23.1
VfL Bochum
23.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.5%
Under 9.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.4%
Under 3.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.5%
Under 21.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SV Darmstadt 98
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.73
0.83
0.58
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.87
0.93
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.70
1.09
0.91
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.86
0.25
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Darmstadt 98) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Darmstadt 98 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Darmstadt 98 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Darmstadt 98 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HB (35)
€60m
SP0 (31)
€53m
H9 (32)
€51m
VB (32)
€47m
HK (34)
€38m
KS (27)
€36m
SD9 (24)
€32m
SGF (35)
€27m
EB (29)
€23m
AB (28)
€18m
PM (31)
€16m
RE (27)
€8m
SV Darmstadt 98's squad is €21m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€32m vs €53m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VB (10)
€19m
SD9 (9)
€17m
KS (8)
€16m
HB (7)
€14m
H9 (10)
€13m
SGF (9)
€12m
HK (8)
€10m
SP0 (11)
€10m
EB (11)
€9m
AB (12)
€8m
PM (8)
€4m
RE (11)
€4m
SV Darmstadt 98's attack is €7m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€17m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HB (10)
€27m
H9 (11)
€25m
SP0 (9)
€21m
VB (9)
€19m
HK (9)
€12m
SD9 (5)
€8m
SGF (10)
€7m
KS (8)
€5m
PM (8)
€4m
EB (5)
€4m
AB (4)
€2m
RE (5)
€1m
SV Darmstadt 98's midfield is €13m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€8m vs €21m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP0 (11)
€22m
HB (18)
€20m
HK (17)
€15m
KS (11)
€15m
H9 (11)
€13m
VB (13)
€10m
EB (13)
€9m
SGF (16)
€9m
SD9 (10)
€8m
PM (15)
€7m
AB (12)
€7m
RE (11)
€3m
SV Darmstadt 98's defence is €15m less valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€8m vs €22m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →