SV Elversberg enter the match after a 3-0 win over Preußen Münster, while Bayer Leverkusen come off a 1-1 draw with Hamburger SV. The model sees Leverkusen as the clear favourite, giving them a 48% chance of victory, 28% for Elversberg and 24% for a draw. The expected goal total is 3.3, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11% chance. Leversberg’s home form shows they score an average of 1.25 goals and concede 1.5 against weaker opponents, whereas Leverkusen’s away form against weaker sides sees them net 1.25 and allow 1.5. The model’s suggested picks focus on low-scoring outcomes: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9% with a 4% edge, Under 7.5 goals at 98.5% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.1% with a 1% edge, Under 6.5 goals at 95.9% with a 4% edge, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.3% with a 4% edge, Under 25.5 fouls at 91.9%, and Home under 1.5 2H goals at 91.1% with an 8% edge.
Results analysis
The upset came as SV Elversberg stunned Bayer Leverkusen 3-2, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was wrong, despite a 48% probability. The model’s selections largely held up: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.9%, Home under 1.5 2H goals hit at 91.1%. The only misses were Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.3% and Under 25.5 fouls at 91.8%. All figures appear once, with probabilities expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
SV Elversberg win✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 5.05
Edge
+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.48
Marathonbet
5.35
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Pinnacle
5.18
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 21.6% · @ 4.40
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.67
Dafabet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Pinnacle
4.52
BetVictor
4.50
Bayer Leverkusen win✗ Miss
48.1%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.59
Edge
-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SV Elversberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.20
2.13
0.87
1.80
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.23
1.91
0.82
1.82
1.64
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
1.12
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.30
1.93
1.20
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.75
1.33
1.83
1.50
1.67
1.17
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
1.27
2.29
1.00
1.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.12+0.5%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 5.75-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Under
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Unibet
5.80
888Sport
5.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.4%
@ 1.46-2.2%
Under 2.5
37.6%
@ 2.66+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Under
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.72
888Sport
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.2%
@ 2.15-3.9%
Under 3.5
59.8%
@ 1.70+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.22
SBO
2.21
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
Under
1xBet
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
@ 1.52+2.2%
No
36.2%
@ 2.43-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
No
Betano
2.50
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 8.41+5.7%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.72+3.5%
2-1
6.9%@ 14.24+3.7%
0-2
6.9%@ 9.51+2.1%
2-2
6.4%@ 12.35+2.7%
0-1
6.4%@ 9.84+1.8%
1-3
5.8%@ 10.44+1.4%
0-0
5.0%@ 18.97+2.6%
SV Elversberg goals ↓
Bayer Leverkusen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.4%
6.9%
4.3%
2.0%
1
4.4%
11%
9.4%
5.8%
2.7%
2
3.7%
6.9%
6.4%
4.0%
1.8%
3
1.7%
3.1%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SV Elversberg goals (down), columns = Bayer Leverkusen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
SV Elversberg is 0.73 points worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
SV Elversberg is 0.85 goals worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
SV Elversberg is 0.72 goals worse than Bayer Leverkusen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.10 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SV Elversberg
For 6.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bayer Leverkusen
For 7.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.9 · Against 9.9 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Elversberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
10.0
4.4
3.3
5.5
24.1
22.9
25.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.0
9.9
10.0
4.4
3.4
5.1
24.1
23.1
24.9
vs Weaker (14)
8.4
7.1
10.2
4.6
3.0
6.7
24.1
22.5
26.3
% over line
50%
46%
54%
64%
50%
77%
72%
54%
88%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
36%
50%
23%
28%
46%
12%
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.5
4.4
4.2
4.5
19.5
18.9
20.1
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
5.7
14.7
4.3
7.0
1.7
16.0
19.3
12.7
vs Similar (17)
10.0
10.6
9.4
4.0
4.3
3.6
19.1
18.7
19.5
vs Weaker (27)
9.3
10.2
8.4
4.6
3.5
5.6
20.5
18.9
22.0
% over line
56%
60%
52%
52%
56%
48%
36%
28%
44%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
48%
44%
52%
64%
72%
56%
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.4%
@ 1.83-2.4%
Under 9.5
51.6%
@ 1.89+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Under
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.7%
@ 1.83-1.1%
Under 3.5
50.3%
@ 1.89+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Under
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
29.5%
@ 2.15-13.3%
Under 21.5
70.5%
@ 1.61+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
Under
Superbet
1.61
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SV Elversberg or Draw✓ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied 40.4% · @ 2.33
Edge
+8.3%
27%
25%
48%
covers SV Elversberg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.43
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Bet365
2.30
SV Elversberg or Bayer Leverkusen✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-3.5%
27%
25%
48%
covers SV Elversberg + Bayer Leverkusen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen✗ Miss
75.7%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
-4.9%
27%
25%
48%
covers Draw + Bayer Leverkusen
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SV Elversberg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.5%
@ 1.36+3.2%
Under
28.5%
@ 2.93-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.95
SV Elversberg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.7%
@ 2.78+2.1%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.41-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
888Sport
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
SV Elversberg over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
13.3%
@ 7.11+0.2%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.07-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
SV Elversberg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 18.69-1.3%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
@ 1.07-2.3%
Under
15.1%
@ 7.26+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.3%
@ 1.45-7.9%
Under
43.7%
@ 2.61+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Under
Pinnacle
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
@ 2.43-9.1%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.52+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.45
888Sport
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.72-7.3%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.16+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
888Sport
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Under
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SV Elversberg, so a minus line means SV Elversberg give that many goals of a start and Bayer Leverkusen receive them. At -1, SV Elversberg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SV Elversberg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.83
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.73
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.88
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.23-3.0%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.94+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Under
William Hil
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.3%
@ 2.12-3.2%
Under 1.5
58.7%
@ 1.70+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
SBO
2.19
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 4.62-4.5%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.18+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SV Elversberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.0%
@ 2.29-7.7%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.57+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
SV Elversberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.7%
@ 7.66-4.3%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.70
1xBet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
SV Elversberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 19.75-3.8%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
60.9%
@ 1.50-1.1%
Under
39.1%
@ 2.46+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.3%
@ 3.40-4.0%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.27+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 8.76+2.6%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.03-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Betano
8.25
Under
Superbet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SV Elversberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.68
1.18
0.45
1.00
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Bayer Leverkusen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bayer Leverkusen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.13
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.53
1.43
0.43
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Elversberg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.0%
@ 1.14+1.3%
Under 0.5
16.0%
@ 5.42-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.8%
@ 1.69-3.1%
Under 1.5
47.2%
@ 2.14+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.6%
@ 3.12-5.4%
Under 2.5
75.4%
@ 1.34+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.08
Under
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SV Elversberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.3%
@ 1.90-5.9%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.83+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.78
SV Elversberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 5.43-8.2%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.12+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
SV Elversberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 13.88-4.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
68.7%
@ 1.34-1.0%
Under
31.3%
@ 3.07+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.57+2.9%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.45-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Bayer Leverkusen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 5.90-5.7%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.10+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.10
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.03
Superbet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.7%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.14
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.6%
1.23
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.17
-
-
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
79.0%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.7%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.7%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
-4.9%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
75.7%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.5%
1.20
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.20
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.7%
1.32
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.5%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.36
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.7%
1.35
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.6%
1.52
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
70.5%
1.61
Superbet
1.61
-
-
-
-
+13.3%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
70.2%
1.51
Marathonbet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
+10.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SV Elversberg · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Younes Ebnoutalib37%
David Mokwa29%
Lukas Petkov28%
Otto Stange25%
Bambasé Conté15%
Jason Ceka14%
Tom Zimmerschied11%
Frederik Schmahl10%
Luca Schnellbacher10%
Raif Adam10%
Maximilian Rohr9%
Jarzinho Malanga8%
Immanuel Pherai8%
Felix Keidel7%
Florian Yves Le Joncour5%
Nicholas Mickelson4%
Jan Gyamerah3%
Amara Condé3%
Łukasz Poręba3%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Lasse Günther0%
Lukas Finn Pinckert0%
Nicolas Kristof0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amara Condé30%
Maximilian Rohr25%
Otto Stange25%
Lukas Finn Pinckert19%
Jan Gyamerah17%
Immanuel Pherai15%
Nicholas Mickelson12%
Łukasz Poręba11%
Lukas Petkov11%
Felix Keidel11%
Younes Ebnoutalib11%
Frederik Schmahl10%
Tom Zimmerschied8%
Bambasé Conté7%
Nicolas Kristof6%
Florian Yves Le Joncour5%
Lasse Günther4%
Luca Schnellbacher3%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Jason Ceka0%
David Mokwa0%
Jarzinho Malanga0%
Raif Adam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Zimmerschied25%
Lasse Günther21%
Bambasé Conté15%
Lukas Petkov14%
Luca Schnellbacher13%
Jan Gyamerah10%
Łukasz Poręba8%
Otto Stange8%
Nicholas Mickelson8%
Felix Keidel7%
Maximilian Rohr6%
Frederik Schmahl3%
Amara Condé3%
Florian Yves Le Joncour0%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Lukas Finn Pinckert0%
Nicolas Kristof0%
Jason Ceka0%
David Mokwa0%
Jarzinho Malanga0%
Younes Ebnoutalib0%
Raif Adam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Ebnoutalib37%
Lukas Petkov25%
Immanuel Pherai23%
Tom Zimmerschied11%
Bambasé Conté7%
Felix Keidel7%
David Mokwa6%
Amara Condé3%
Łukasz Poręba3%
Florian Yves Le Joncour0%
Jan Gyamerah0%
Carlo Sickinger0%
Luca Schnellbacher0%
Nicholas Mickelson0%
Maximilian Rohr0%
Lasse Günther0%
Lukas Finn Pinckert0%
Nicolas Kristof0%
Jason Ceka0%
Frederik Schmahl0%
Jarzinho Malanga0%
Otto Stange0%
Raif Adam0%
Bayer Leverkusen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrik Schick36%
Alex Grimaldo24%
Martin Terrier21%
Malik Tillman17%
Christian Kofane16%
Edmond Tapsoba11%
Jarell Quansah11%
Ernest Poku11%
Jonas Hofmann11%
Aleix García10%
Ibrahim Maza9%
Robert Andrich7%
Arthur6%
Montrell Culbreath6%
Lucas Vázquez5%
Nathan Tella5%
Exequiel Palacios0%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Loïc Badé0%
Ezequiel Fernández0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Axel Tape0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edmond Tapsoba27%
Jarell Quansah20%
Exequiel Palacios20%
Aleix García20%
Alex Grimaldo17%
Robert Andrich17%
Lucas Vázquez16%
Loïc Badé15%
Eliesse Ben Seghir13%
Axel Tape12%
Christian Kofane11%
Jonas Hofmann11%
Ezequiel Fernández10%
Arthur10%
Malik Tillman10%
Nathan Tella9%
Claudio Echeverri9%
Ibrahim Maza7%
Janis Blaswich6%
Patrik Schick5%
Ernest Poku4%
Martin Terrier4%
Mark Flekken3%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alex Grimaldo24%
Aleix García20%
Nathan Tella18%
Ernest Poku18%
Lucas Vázquez16%
Ibrahim Maza14%
Christian Kofane14%
Arthur10%
Patrik Schick10%
Jonas Hofmann7%
Edmond Tapsoba5%
Martin Terrier4%
Exequiel Palacios4%
Ezequiel Fernández3%
Robert Andrich2%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Jarell Quansah0%
Malik Tillman0%
Loïc Badé0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Axel Tape0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrik Schick31%
Christian Kofane20%
Ibrahim Maza18%
Nathan Tella14%
Alex Grimaldo13%
Malik Tillman5%
Jarell Quansah5%
Martin Terrier4%
Jonas Hofmann4%
Edmond Tapsoba2%
Ernest Poku2%
Lucas Vázquez0%
Exequiel Palacios0%
Robert Andrich0%
Mark Flekken0%
Janis Blaswich0%
Aleix García0%
Loïc Badé0%
Ezequiel Fernández0%
Jeanuël Belocian0%
Eliesse Ben Seghir0%
Arthur0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Claudio Echeverri0%
Montrell Culbreath0%
Axel Tape0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
SV Elversberg's squad is €447m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€52m vs €499m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
SV Elversberg's attack is €212m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€33m vs €246m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
SV Elversberg's midfield is €87m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€4m vs €91m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SV Elversberg's defence is €148m less valuable than Bayer Leverkusen's (€14m vs €162m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart