This match between SV Kapfenberg and FC Liefering is finely balanced, with a recent-form storyline that could influence the outcome. FC Liefering has been coming off a defeat, but they've also shown impressive recent form with four consecutive wins. On the other hand, SV Kapfenberg has struggled, with two straight defeats in their last five matches.
The model's selection is an away win, with a probability of 40%. The model also suggests that the match will end in a draw, with a probability of 27%, and an away win, with a probability of 33%. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%.
SV Kapfenberg has a similar strength tier at home, averaging 1.67 goals scored and conceded. FC Liefering has a similar strength tier away, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.56 goals conceded. The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.8% probability, and Over 3.5 cards, with a 79% probability. The home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 40%.
The win extends SV Kapfenberg's recent run of losses, with their last five results reading LLWLL. In contrast, FC Liefering's recent form has been impressive, with four consecutive wins after a defeat. The final score was 0-4 in favour of FC Liefering, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, an away win, was correct. The model's prediction of an away win had a 40% probability of occurring. The model's selection of an away win was correct. The model's suggested picks largely came in, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting at 80.8% probability.
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.70 | 1.36 | 1.57 | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.19 | 1.52 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 4.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
FC Liefering| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.47 | 2.07 | 1.53 | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.50 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 1.61 | 1.54 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 1.21 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Liefering goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 12% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
SV Kapfenberg
FC Liefering
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 22.2 | 24.6 | 20.6 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 8.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 | 17.0 | 12.0 |
| vs Similar (44) | 10.3 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 23.8 | 26.5 | 22.0 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 40% | 43% | 20% | 17% | 23% | 58% | 80% | 43% |
| % under line | 58% | 60% | 57% | 80% | 83% | 77% | 42% | 20% | 57% |
FC Liefering| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 26.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 13.5 | 13.5 | - | 2.8 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 24.5 | 24.5 | - |
| vs Weaker (46) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 25.3 | 24.6 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 40% | 71% | 22% | 25% | 19% | 71% | 60% | 86% |
| % under line | 47% | 60% | 29% | 78% | 75% | 81% | 29% | 40% | 14% |
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 1.10 | 0.43 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 4.50 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.37 | 0.89 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.36 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
FC Liefering| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.63 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 0.93 | 0.68 | 1.29 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
SV Kapfenberg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.81 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
FC Liefering| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.50 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 0.68 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.16 | +0.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.9% | 1.39 | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.35 | - | - | +8.9% | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 07/11/25 | A | 5-2 | |
| 11/04/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 27/09/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 20/05/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 12/11/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/04/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 3-2 |
SV Kapfenberg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
FC Liefering| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | FC Liefering | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 3 | First Vienna | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | Floridsdorfer AC | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 80% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Austria Salzburg | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Wacker Innsbruck | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | SKU Amstetten | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Sturm Graz II | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 4.6 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2.6 | - |
| 12 | Rapid Wien II | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 13 | Voitsberg | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | SKN ST. Polten | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3.6 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.4 | - |